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Exchange stocks: Copper and tin continued to fall last week, especially tin, which has fallen nearly 10% since the beginning of the year. Compared with the beginning of the year, nickel inventories also fell by a small margin of 0.3%, and aluminum inventories increased slightly by 1.6%. However, the inventory of lead and zinc is continuing to rise. Since the beginning of the year, the inventory has increased by nearly 20%. The inventory of copper has also increased by 10% compared with the beginning of the year. However, the inventory of copper has continued to decline over the past month, with a drop of 3.4%.
Liquidity is still abundant: global liquidity is abundant. Since the US dollar March LIBOR fell below a record low of 0.3% in September 2009, it has been at a very low level in history. LIBOR is the pricing basis for global financial assets, and low interest rates have driven the global financial asset boom. Another TED spread indicator that reflects global liquidity preferences is also at a very low level in history. On the Chinese side, after the ultra-high-speed credit was launched last year, the slowdown in the launch rate this year is inevitable, but the current liquidity has not shown significant contraction. Historically, M2 has grown at a rate of more than 18%, and the incentives for copper prices (63230, -150.00, -0.24%) are positive. This year, the central bank proposed a M2 growth target of 17%-18%, so the overall liquidity has not been significantly tightened. What's more, the current M2 growth rate is as high as 25%.
The global economy is recovering strongly, and the peak consumption season boosts metal prices: The latest global PMI indicator shows that global manufacturing is still recovering strongly. The global PMI for JP MORGAN has rebounded to 56.7 in March, the highest since May 2004. The latest PMI indicators of China and the United States have returned to the highest level since the second half of 2004. It is particularly worth mentioning that the US inventory sub-indicator has rebounded from 47.3 in the previous month to 55.3 this month, showing a clear replenishment momentum! Historically, the second quarter is the peak demand season for non-ferrous metals. With the seasonal peak of real estate, home appliances and power grid investment, the demand for metals will gradually be released. The trend of traditional price increases in the first quarter did not appear this year. It is expected that with the arrival of the peak consumption season in the second quarter, the price of non-ferrous metals is expected to increase.
Non-ferrous metals prices are expected to increase
Domestic and foreign prices: Last week, the Greek debt crisis eased, the US dollar weakened and strong PMI data from various countries introduced incentives. LME base metals rose across the board, with a 4-8% increase. Among them, LME zinc is rumored to be closed by Red Dog, the world's largest lead-zinc mine, with a maximum increase of 7.8%, nickel and aluminum also rising by more than 6%, and the rest of the metal rose by more than 4%. Domestic metals are still the biggest gainer of nickel, with a weekly increase of 7.1%, copper and zinc gaining more than 2%, and the remaining gains of less than 1%. Affected by the decline of the US dollar, domestic and foreign gold rose slightly by 1-1.5% last week.