2011 economic data released GDP growth today or fell back to 9.2%

The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the main macroeconomic data for 2011 today (17th). Analysts predict that GDP growth may fall back to around 9.2% last year, of which the fourth quarter GDP growth rate may hit a two-year low. China's export growth rate has gradually slowed down, the signs of hot money outflow are obvious, the monetary policy fine-tuning is expected to gradually strengthen, and there are institutional forecasts, and the possibility of lowering the deposit reserve ratio before the Spring Festival is still not ruled out.

GDP growth rate may fall to 9.2% in 2011. The growth rate in the fourth quarter may hit a new low in the past two years.

It is reported that the National Bureau of Statistics will release data on GDP, industrial production added value, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate sales and investment on the 17th. Since the third quarter of 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP has remained above 9%. In the first three quarters of 2011, GDP growth rates were 9.7%, 9.5%, and 9.1%, respectively. Among them, the 9.1% GDP growth rate in the third quarter hit a phased low in the past two years. According to statistics, many institutions have predicted that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down to the "8" prefix.

In addition, according to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the industrial producer price index (PPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year in December, down 0.3% from the previous month. The accelerated PPI decline shows that the industrial growth rate is still declining. At the same time, the data released by the customs also showed that the import and export growth rate in December last year fell to 13.4%, a new low for more than two years.

All these signs indicate that China's economic growth has continued to slow down. For the economic data to be released today, experts generally predict that the GDP growth rate in 2011 may fall to 9.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the GDP growth rate will fall below 9% and will fall for three consecutive quarters.

According to China Securities Journal reported on the 16th, Goldman Sachs Chinese economist Song Yu predicted that the fourth quarter of 2011 GDP growth rate is expected to be 8.8%, the annual economic growth rate will reach 9.2%. Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS China, believes that the growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011 will fall from 9.0% in the third quarter to 8.6%, and will fall further to 7.7% in the first quarter of 2012. Tang Yunfei, chief macro analyst of Founder Securities, believes that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 is expected to be 8.5%, and the annual growth rate is about 9.2%.

China's economic downside risks intensify 2012 GDP growth may slow down again

The previously announced December CPI rose 4.1% year-on-year, hitting a 15-month low. With the advent of the New Year, price pressures have gradually weakened. However, the current European debt crisis continues to ferment, the US economy is still weak, China's export growth rate is facing a continued slowdown, and it is difficult to continue to stimulate economic development with investment. In 2012, China's economy will face more downside risks. According to a survey report, 79% of the 100 well-known economists interviewed believe that 2012 China's GDP will maintain an increase of 8% to 9%, and it is unlikely that it will exceed 9%.

Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, said earlier that “constrained by demand, the economic downturn in 2012 has become an established thing. I believe that this year’s economic growth rate will be 8.5% or below.”

As the economic downturn is expected to increase, analysts say that the importance of “guaranteeing growth” is increasing, and measures to boost economic demand should be introduced in due course. According to "China Securities Journal" reported on the 16th, UBS China's chief economist Wang Tao said that the regulatory policy will be more apparently loosened, starting from the second quarter to boost domestic investment and real economic activities.

Signs of hot money outflows are clearly expected to be fine-tuned for monetary policy

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2011 set the tone for the economic and social development in 2012 as “steady progress”. The meeting also stressed that it is necessary to continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, but monetary policy should be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner according to the economic operation.

According to data released by the central bank on the 13th, foreign exchange holdings fell by about 100.33 billion yuan in December 2011, the third consecutive month of decline. Among them, foreign exchange in October and November decreased by 24.9 billion yuan and 27.9 billion yuan respectively. The decline in December was significantly expanded compared with the previous two months, and the signs of capital outflow were obvious.

According to the "Yangcheng Evening News" reported on the 16th, the sharp decline in foreign exchange holdings will inevitably reduce the release of the base currency. Analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before the downward adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio to hedge the decline in foreign exchange holdings. Zhou Hao, an economist at ANZ China, said that the sharp drop in foreign exchange holdings of nearly 100 billion and the decline in fiscal deposits in January this year have made companies feel that credit is tight, and the reduction in reserve ratio will release liquidity. Obvious effect.

Guotai Junan reported that under the background of the continuous outflow of hot money and the expected increase in monetary policy easing, the possibility of lowering the RRR before the Spring Festival cannot be ruled out. It is expected that the future RRR will continue to decrease.

LED Effects

LED Effects,Strobe Wash Led,Hybrid Led Strobe,Led Effect Light Matrix

EV LIGHT Guangzhou Co., Ltd , https://www.evlightpro.com