The photovoltaic market will really test the price of polysilicon this year.

The global PV industry suffered an unprecedented setback last year, but this year is perhaps the real test of the photovoltaic industry. The reporter learned from the industry yesterday that the actual demand for photovoltaics in the world declined last year. As there is still considerable stock undigested, it is expected that global PV products will continue to show oversupply this year, and polysilicon prices are unlikely to rise sharply.

Actual PV demand fell last year

According to the latest report released by IHS isupply, the global installed capacity is expected to reach 21.9GW in 2011, up 19.6% year-on-year. But among them, Italy's 6.9GW data makes the industry suspicious. If the data of Italy is squeezed out, the actual demand last year will not only rise but fall.

According to the data provided by the Italian Energy Service Management (GSE), as of December 2011, the PV system registered in the GSE and connected to the grid is close to 7GW. However, among the 7GWs, the newly installed system in 2011 is only 3.7GW, and the remaining 3.3GW was built in 2010 and connected to the grid in 2011.

The reason for the above differences is mainly due to the lengthy integration of photovoltaic systems in Italy. This difference means that the actual demand downstream of global terminals in 2010 is 21.6GW instead of 18.3GW. Correspondingly, the actual installed capacity of 21.9GW on the surface in 2011 was only 18.6GW after the extrusion of water, which not only did not rise, but fell by 13.9%.

In addition to the slowdown in demand in Italy, the installed capacity in Germany has also fallen from 7.4 GW in 2010 to 5.9 GW. The rest of Europe has experienced varying degrees of decline.

However, the contribution of markets outside Europe began to appear last year. According to IHS statistics, the installed capacity in the United States reached 2.7 GW in 2011, up 195.1% from 2010. The installed capacity of photovoltaics in China and Japan also reached 1.7 GW and 1.3 GW respectively.

This year's true test

“Although the total amount of polysilicon consumption has increased last year, the actual demand for the solar terminal market is only 1235,000 tons, which means that there are still about 6-7GW of component stocks in the world that have not been digested.” China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch analyst Xie Chen said.

In most institutions' view, 2012 is the real test of the global PV market. On the one hand, after the rapid development of European countries in the past two years, the growth rate of PV installations is slowing down. If the European economy continues to slump and banks continue to tighten lending guarantees, then Europe's installed capacity this year is likely to be flat or even retrogressive. On the other hand, the US and Asian markets will gradually become an important factor affecting the global PV industry in the future.

"Optimistically, the global installed capacity can reach 28GW in 2012, and the elimination of 7GW of existing stocks means that there is only 21GW of real demand this year." Xie Chen said.

In his view, with the current operation of the downstream manufacturers, even if the existing operating rate is maintained, the battery production in 2012 will reach at least 25GW, so unless the operating rate continues to decline in 2012 or the number of closed enterprises increases, Whether demand grows or not, global PV products will continue to show a clear supply surplus.

For polysilicon, as the global PV market in 2012 will continue to expand on the basis of 2011. Therefore, the Silicon Industry Branch believes that it is difficult for global polysilicon prices to increase significantly in 2012. The average annual price is expected to be around US$40-$50/kg.

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