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October economic data released CPI back to finale
The National Bureau of Statistics will release several key macroeconomic data for October, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size, the growth rate of fixed asset investment, and social consumer goods. Retail sales growth. Among them, the consumer price index (CPI) has been receiving much attention. The market generally expects that the year-on-year increase in CPI will drop significantly as the tail-hanging factor decreases and food prices fall. Many parties predict that the October CPI is expected to "fall below 6%", and may even be 5.5%, which has fallen sharply. Some experts said that the decline in data on pork and other agricultural products is expected to drive high CPI down. The year-on-year increase in pork prices measured by the Ministry of Commerce fell from 50% in September this year to 42% in October. Judging from the price trend of the four weeks before October announced by the Ministry of Commerce, the main driver of this round of inflation, the trend of falling food prices is quite obvious. The year-on-year increase in the National Agricultural Wholesale Price Index released by the Ministry of Agriculture also fell from 16% in September to 11.3% in October. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price of major foods in 50 cities across the country showed that the prices of vegetables and meat and eggs fell in October. The above data are good news that CPI continued to fall in October. In addition to the decline in CPI, experts predict that several other economic data will slow down. Institutional forecasts mostly believe that the October PPI will be around 5.8%. Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the industrial growth rate will continue to decline in October, and the growth rate is expected to be about 13.1%. The price of production materials continued to decline in October, and the PMI purchase price index showed a significant decline. He expected the PPI in October to be -0.1%, up 5.7% year-on-year. Experts expect the export growth rate to fall further. Gao Hua Securities expects the year-on-year growth rate of exports to fall further from 17.1% in September to 13.0% in October. The year-on-year growth rate of imports in October will fall to 19.0% from 20.9% in September. The implied trade surplus in October was $23.7 billion, up from $14.5 billion in September. Previous market analysis believes that if the CPI continues to decline in October, it indicates that China's inflationary pressures have eased. The high-level statement in the recent period has also made the market believe that the future macro economy is gradually shifting from "control inflation" to "guarantee growth", and monetary policy is expected to be relaxed. The monetary policy relaxation and fine-tuning signal has become more and more intense. Recently, a research institute released a research report that the deposit reserve ratio was lowered in early December or for the first time.