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China's crude steel consumption or zero growth in the next few years
On April 21, Wu Wen, general manager of the “Steel House†website of the domestic steel information organization, said at the 8th Steel Industry Development Strategy Conference that China’s steel industry entered a stage of total overcapacity from the stage of structural and staged overcapacity. . It is worth noting that this is different from the overcapacity problem of steel mentioned in the past. The so-called total overcapacity means that the main domestic steel products have been oversupplied, and there is not much room for further growth in steel consumption. This will be a long-term contradiction in the operation of the steel market. In 2011, in addition to the varieties of electrical steel strips, other steel products have achieved greater export than imports, which indicates that the domestic steel industry has a full overcapacity. Steel House expects that China's current steel holdings and consumption are close to the level of developed countries. It is expected that China's crude steel consumption will enter the peak area of ​​7.2-750 million tons from 2012 to 2015. This means that steel consumption in the next few years is likely to be almost zero growth compared to the end of 2012. In September last year, the domestic steel market price fell sharply. It began to slowly pick up in November. Since the beginning of March this year, it has shown a trend of rebounding and rebounding. At present, the domestic steel market price is in a recovery recovery track. "Now the demand is weakening, but there is not much problem." Wu article predicts that the domestic steel market demand will grow steadily in 2012. It is estimated that the annual demand for crude steel will be 7-720 million tons, an increase of about 7%; Slow down, it is estimated that China's net export this year is about 30-35 million tons. The excess production of long products in the second half of the year will gradually emerge. The iron ore supply and demand relationship will be eased, the price is slightly lower than in 2011, the average operating price is between 140-150 US dollars / ton. According to the statistics of the Steel House website, as of the end of March 2012, China has built 870 million tons of blast furnace capacity. The capacity of less than 400 cubic meters is 114 million tons. In addition, the total capacity of the blast furnace project to be built is 277 million tons. "If the blast furnace with a volume of less than 400 cubic meters is completely eliminated, by 2015 China's blast furnace capacity will reach 1 billion tons, and the surplus situation is obvious." Wu said.