Public organizations see the market: domestic steel industry rebounded in the summer

Since the second quarter, the domestic economy has continued to slump. The government has proposed 11 measures to ensure steady growth, and a new round of economic stimulus policies have eased investor pessimism. Therefore, after the main contract price of rebar fell below the integer mark of 4,000 yuan/ton, there was a sign of stabilization on the disk. However, taking into account that real demand is not effectively boosted in the short term, coupled with the European debt crisis has still not been effectively suppressed and eased, so the price rebound is somewhat weak.

Minmetals **: The turnover of steel downstream was light

As we emphasized yesterday, the focus of this week's market is on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, and short-selling of international commodities. Although raw materials, iron ore reversed, but it did not reach the lower volume of lighter and stronger shipping intentions. Today, the disk is more difficult to move. We expect the pressure to move up to the 4090-4095 line, after the lightening of yesterday's empty single holders. Have a wait and see, if the plate effectively breaks through 4100, then wait and see.

Guangfa **: Shanghai Steel long-term empty single caution holds

The downward pressure on the economy has intensified, and measures to stabilize growth have been introduced. However, the current steady growth measures have not significantly boosted the demand for construction steel. Although the output of crude steel declined slightly in mid-June, the stocks of steel mills increased significantly, indicating that the supply and demand conditions are still weak. Yesterday, driven by other commodities, Shanghai Steel lightened up, but spot prices still fell weakly. Operation, long-term empty singles held cautiously, it is not recommended to buy the bottom, there is a strong resistance 4100-4150.

China Steel **: Stronger concussion above the spiral 4060

On the whole, the central bank’s 143 billion yuan amount of reverse repurchases showed that the central bank’s efforts to release liquidity in the market, followed by the stable recovery of the PMI index in the steel industry in June, and the positive factors in the steel market gradually increased, which constituted favorable support for prices; technically, Threads opened lower and oscillated upwards, and short-term prices remained weak and weak. In operation, you can try more than 4050. Today's 1210 contract looks shocked and the target range is 4060-4090.

Huatai Great Wall **: Housing market positive for Shanghai Steel's strong concussion

Yesterday, the main thread was 1210, shocks rose, high consolidation, 4080 first-line pressure serious. With the fundamentals of steel unchanged, the return of the main thread price yesterday was a correction to Monday's oversold price. At present, the overall profit of the steel industry is low and inventory is high. At the same time, due to the hot weather, the demand for downstream building materials is hardly optimistic. The oversupply of the steel industry will continue for some time.

Guotai Junan **: Rebar continued to operate within days of shock

Thread 1210 main contract stabilized throughout the day to rebound, lighten up, to close out of the sun, 1301 contract also lighten up, seats on the Yongan ** yesterday appeared to take the initiative to reduce their short positions. Positions, July 3 thread 1210 main contract more than a single seat reduction of 24141 hand, its China Taijun security seats, reducing 9804 hand; empty singles to reduce holdings 14633 hands, including Zhejiang Yongan ** seats, reducing 15861 hand. Positions are bearish.

Soochow **: Market expects easing policy to be supported by short-term rebound

Taken together, the thread base still remains weak and does not support a significant increase in the thread. Currently, it can only be seen as a systematic rebound. Operationally, we should now be cautious.

Shenhua **: thread or continuation rebound concerns 4100 pressure performance

In general, a number of steel mills have lowered their price adjustments; the steel trade circle is supported by banks and the idleness of land will be dealt with. It is hoped that the investment in infrastructure will be increased, and Lido will be used. On the operation, short-term and more hollow operation ideas will be held, and the pressure will be 4120 yuan/ton.

Hongye **: It's too early to get a thread rebound before the new round of easing

Although the recent market expectation for the new round of quantitative easing policy is extremely high, it can also be seen that the market economic activity is sluggish and the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating. At the same time, even though the average housing prices in 100 major cities in China fell for nine consecutive months in June. After the first chain-on-month increase, the continuation of this increase remains to be tested, and the fact that the rebound in steel stocks for the first time after a consecutive 19-week decline is also a fact that must be faced. Therefore, at this time, it is necessary to say that the thread will rebound. Earlier, I believe that yesterday's rally is a good time for empty single entry. It is recommended that investors use 4100 as the entry point to go short.

China Steel Network view:

Affected by the external market, there was a clear sign of an empty single departure yesterday, which in turn promoted the uptrend of the steel. However, due to the obvious pressure near the 10-day moving average and the unsatisfied trend of the spot market downturn, the upward momentum of the steel was insufficient. It is expected that the steel will be narrower today. The market was volatile and focused on the 10-day moving average pressure. Today, the building materials market as a whole maintains a downward trend.

In general, rebar investment opportunities in the second half of the year are relatively small, and trading opportunities need to look at policy cooperation, the progress of key projects, and the relaxation of policies. It will take time before the effect of the previous government's increase in investment appears, and it is relatively limited to increase the total demand in the coming months.