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China's manufacturing industry will face double adjustment of de-capacity and transformation
At present, the domestic real economy contraction and shock caused by the debt crisis in developed countries has gradually weakened. Under the continuous stimulation of monetary and fiscal policies, new production demand has begun to grow, the manufacturing PMI index has shown signs of recovery, and the macro economy has been avoided. "hard landing" risk. However, the deep-seated contradiction between global supply and demand imbalance has not been effectively resolved. China will face the dual adjustment of “de-capacity†and manufacturing transformation. The road to full recovery of manufacturing industry is not smooth. China’s officially announced October China manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, and in September it was 49.8%, a four-month high, and for the first time in three months, it returned to the top 50. The five sub-indexes of PMI generally improved, with the new order index being 50.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and hitting a new high for half a year. The raw material inventory index decreased, indicating that the “destocking†process may end. On the other hand, although the decline in new export orders has narrowed, the level of 49.3 is still below the 50-point line for five consecutive months, indicating that the new external demand in the future is not very optimistic. Through the perspective of short-term data, the author believes that the recovery of China's manufacturing industry will be more difficult, and the foundation for sustained recovery is still very fragile. From the external environment, the deep-seated contradiction between global supply and demand imbalance has not been effectively solved. The potential total output and potential demand of the global economy constitute long-term negative impacts. The dual contradiction between “under-demand†and “overproduction†will be normalized. In essence, “deleveraging†is the only way after each round of crisis. Corresponding to the “de-leveraging†and “de-debtization†of countries such as the United States and Europe, China’s “de-capacity†process. Overcapacity and manufacturing upgrades are a “cancer†for all manufacturing powers. More importantly, the industrial background of heavy industrialization will extend the duration of overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry. Internationally, capacity utilization is an important indicator of overcapacity. According to the experience of the United States, when the industrial capacity utilization rate exceeds 95%, the utilization rate of representative equipment is nearly all; when the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle, and “overcapacity†appears; industrial capacity utilization When the rate is 81% or more, it is a normal "overcapacity", and when it is below 81%, it is a serious overcapacity. At present, nearly 28% of China's manufacturing industry has idle capacity, and 35.5% of manufacturing enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 75% or less. Not only traditional industries such as steel, cement, automobiles, and textiles, but also wind power equipment and polysilicon are emerging. The industry has also experienced a relatively serious "overcapacity", so "de-capacity" is much more difficult than "destocking." In addition, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is a bigger challenge. The new trend of global “supply substitution†is gradually weakening the traditional comparative advantage of China. The return of manufacturing in developed countries and the low-cost manufacturing competition of sub-emerging developing countries make Chinese manufacturing Faced with the double attack of "before blocking and chasing". From the perspective of China's own internal conditions, China's manufacturing industry must face not only the dilemma of “declining growth rate, weak demand, rising costs, and shrinking profitsâ€, but also facing the problems of structural adjustment and transformation. Therefore, the short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry is worry-free, but the medium- and long-term structural adjustment must be put on the agenda. Vigorously eliminate backward production capacity, promote the adjustment and optimization of the industry structure and the improvement of overall competitiveness, and lay a solid foundation for the next round of development in the trough. At the same time, efforts should be made to stabilize the internal and external market demand so that the industry's advanced production capacity can survive. For manufacturing enterprises, it is necessary to “practice internal strength†and accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading of enterprise technology and product structure under the pressure of the market. Accelerate from the low end of the value chain to the middle and high end, enlarge and strengthen a group of enterprises through the survival of the fittest, improve industrial concentration and production efficiency, and truly cultivate the new competitive advantages of China's manufacturing industry.