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From 2002 to 2012, the term "polysilicon" was from strange to familiar. In the past ten years, the polysilicon industry has grown from nothing in China, but once it took off, it suddenly fell, and it was bruised and bruised. How should polysilicon companies get out of the dilemma and reinvigorate?
Pain of productivity
When the hour hand was dialed back to around 2004, there were few Chinese polysilicon companies. Some products were lying in the research institutes, while others were piled up in warehouses. In 2008, the situation was very different. At the peak (the first half of 2008), $400/KG was a far cry from the price of $50/KG four years ago.
The skyrocketing price of polysilicon has brought excess capacity. After 2011, with the deepening of the financial crisis and the surplus industrial pattern, polysilicon prices continued to suffer. At the end of 2012, it fell below $20/KG, and the company suffered a great loss.
According to the statistics of China's Photovoltaic Industry Alliance in 2012, the total production capacity of more than 160 Chinese PV cells and components companies has been around 40G watts, and the global PV module capacity is 50G to 60G watts.
The global polysilicon production capacity is also seriously overcapacity. The capacity of the five major suppliers is 227,000 tons. The production of 1 watt silicon wafer with 5.5 grams of silicon material is estimated to be 40 GW, but the global PV installation in 2012 is only 30 GW. A large number of polysilicon companies in China and overseas have to choose to stop production or repair.
In the first half of 2012, more than 50% of domestic polysilicon companies were in the semi-discontinued or completely discontinued stage. Although China's polysilicon production in the first half of 2012 reached 38,000 tons, the company's output reached 25,000 tons. It is conceivable that most companies have not fully released their production capacity.
Due to high cost pressure, polysilicon companies such as Xinjiang and Sichuan were forced to stop production and repair in April 2012, and a new energy source (DQ.NYSE) with polysilicon base in Xinjiang and Chongqing Wanzhou did not say: "We are working The Wanzhou polysilicon project, which is undergoing technological transformation, does not know when it will resume production."
Policy spring breeze
Polysilicon companies have come to this step, not just because of the financial crisis. It is not the others who cause it to be bruised and bruised, but the polysilicon enterprise itself.
When many investors use billions of dollars and hundreds of billions of dollars to invest in this field, there is not enough expectation on the market supply and demand situation and the price of PV downstream products (such as components, batteries, etc.); Hydrogenation technology, R&D personnel capabilities, product recovery, and cost reduction are not comparable to traditional, established polysilicon companies such as WACKER in Germany.
Therefore, when the global polysilicon market price has fallen sharply, the technical level of domestic enterprises is still not in place, and the contradiction between cost and price has become more prominent. At this time, overseas (such as the United States, Germany) polysilicon companies with strong price competitiveness are further dumped at low prices in China, and domestic enterprises can only stop production and reduce losses.
In fact, some people have suggested that polysilicon companies can get a chance to breathe through mergers and acquisitions. Wang Liusheng, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that Zhongneng Silicon can collect polysilicon companies in East China, or go to Sichuan, Chongqing and other regions to purchase production lines. Through technological transformation or another technology introduced by “silane methodâ€, Reduce the cost of small and medium-sized polysilicon companies.
A person from Zhongneng Silicon Industry told reporters that the investment in technological transformation may be lower than the closure of some factories with thousands of tons of scale. Therefore, integration and technology sharing among enterprises are the road to salvation of companies. one.
The difficulty of integration is not small. Guo Wenjun analyst Hou Wentao pointed out that the most hesitant company is still the M&A price.
In the case of a sharp contraction in the market, it is impossible for the seller to obtain a high premium, but only a sale. This is obviously not a good thing for the major shareholders who have invested heavily and invested heavily in polysilicon.
In any case, the recent government's introduction of a series of PV policies has made the entire industry see the dawn. As mentioned at the State Council executive meeting, it is necessary to adjust the overcapacity through the market and strictly control the new production capacity. In addition, the development of distributed energy will be promoted, and the market for PV installation in units, homes and communities will also expand. It is noteworthy that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the goal of increasing the domestic PV installed capacity from 21G watts to 40G watts is also considered a new policy that may be implemented.
The parties expect that under the premise of the vigorous development of China's PV market, the global PV installed capacity will continue to rise, which may be one of the signs to reactivate China's polysilicon industry.
How do polysilicon companies get out of the dilemma?
Abstract "Polysilicon enterprises have come to this step, not just because of the financial crisis. It is not the others but the polysilicon enterprises themselves." From 2002 to 2012, "Polysilicon &...
"Polysilicon enterprises have come to this step, not just because of the financial crisis. It is not the others but the polysilicon enterprises themselves that cause them to be bruised and bruised."