Photovoltaic industry warms up to guard against "going crazy again"

Although "****" did not come, but for China's photovoltaic industry, the "curse" of overcapacity and the "double reverse" of Europe and the United States have made it a thrilling experience in 2012." The Doomsday Crisis." However, if 2012 is positioned as the disaster year for China's PV companies, then it can also be positioned as the first year for the domestic PV market to start. Especially in the end of the year, various kinds of new policies were centralized to set the tone for the domestic market. It seems that the new “spring” of the photovoltaic industry is now dawning.

Rarely can there be an industry, like China's solar energy, in a few short weeks, there has been a reversal from the “industrial winter” to the “star of tomorrow,” even if the change only stays in the brokerage research, media news. Within the category, it is also exciting enough.

All this happened because management expressed a clearer supportive attitude towards the solar energy industry, especially on December 19, when the signal intensity reached a peak. Premier Wen Jiabao chaired the executive meeting of the State Council to study and determine the policies and measures to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. The five identified policy measures include the core issues such as “focusing on promoting distributed photovoltaic power generation and establishing the sub-regional on-grid benchmark power price for photovoltaic power plants based on resource conditions” that have received much attention. For a time, the solar energy industry was very excited.

Good news at home and abroad

After China's solar energy industry experienced major negative effects such as the US “double reverse”, European “anti-dumping” investigation, and the decline of Italian installed capacity in 2012, the price of the product continued its downward trend in 2011.

This situation directly led to the price of polysilicon falling by more than 90% compared with the price of 400 US dollars/kg three years ago, and 90% of companies stopped production or even closed down. At the same time, the price of PV modules has fallen from US$0.95/W at the beginning of 2012 to US$0.66/W at the beginning of November. Affected by this, profits of upstream and downstream companies in all areas of solar energy have declined sharply. Take the three quarterly report as an example. Most of the solar energy companies listed companies have achieved a net profit reduction of more than 50%. For example, LDK, Wuxi Suntech and other industry leaders are caught in a dilemma caused by “high debt”.

“The third quarter may be the worst time for PV companies this year. Take us as an example. Shipments in the current quarter are only about 500 megawatts.” Wang Zhixin, head of propaganda department of Yingli Group, introduced the report to the “Securities Daily” reporter.

In this most critical moment, in order to save the solar energy industry, the management's series of new policies began to exert force.

In September of this year, the National Energy Administration issued the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar Power Generation” as the starting point. In October, the State Grid Corporation of China issued the “Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Distributed Photovoltaic Power Grid Integration Services”; The Bureau completed the “Consultation on Promoting the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry” and “Implementation Measures for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Demonstration Zones and Electricity Price Subsidy Standards”; the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the National Energy Administration decided to A series of "Golden Sun" demonstration projects will be launched before the end of this year. On December 11, the country announced the second batch of "Golden Sun" projects, totaling 3.83GW.

In Wang Zhixin's view, "Management's series of new policies are all major advantages for the industry, and among them, 'Golden Sun' is the most direct and most effective." The relevant persons of the Hanergy Group also told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "the second batch of 'Golden Sun' has given more time. As soon as we got the news, we immediately began to organize the application of the application materials. The company attaches great importance to it. ".

It is worth mentioning that while the new government for photovoltaic construction in China is still on the ground, the international photovoltaic market is also conducive to frequent transmission.

According to recent overseas market news, Germany plans to increase its electricity tariff by 13% in 2013 to subsidize new energy sources, while Japan’s photovoltaic policy stimulates rapid growth in installed capacity.

According to statistics, the installed capacity of solar energy in the first half of this year was about 13GW, an increase of 25% year-on-year. According to past experience, the installed capacity in the second half of the year is usually faster than in the first half of the year. Therefore, it is expected by the industry that the global installed capacity in the second half of 2012 should be over 17GW, and the annual installed capacity of solar energy is around 30GW. Based on this calculation, even in 2012, when this photovoltaic "winter", the global photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to grow.

Industry warmer to prevent "go crazy"

In fact, for a long time, for the construction of photovoltaic power plants, there are two major difficulties, one is the problem of grid connection, and the other is the intensity of subsidies.

In the related policies announced by the State recently, the State Grid has explicitly stated that it accepts photovoltaic power plants with an installed capacity of less than 6 MW, thereby eliminating the difficulties of grid connection to a certain extent; on the other hand, according to the “Distributed PV Power Generation Demonstration Area” that has recently been circulated Implementation measures and subsidies for electricity price subsidies in the 0.4-0.6 yuan / kwh subsidy intensity, the industry speculated that this intensity can bring about 10% of the yield in the construction of photovoltaic power plants in some regions.

In this regard, GF Securities Research reported that in the period when the sales of components are very difficult, the simultaneous landing of grid-connected and subsidies will bring about rapid growth opportunities for distributed photovoltaic power generation. It is expected that distributed photovoltaic power generation will grow rapidly in 2013. With the promotion of domestic distributed photovoltaic power generation in 2013, the total domestic photovoltaic installation capacity will be between 7-8GW.

On this basis, as an upstream industry, the “shuffle” of polysilicon in 2013 is also expected to end.

First of all, if the global demand for 35GW is calculated in 2013, the demand for polysilicon is 6g per watt, and the global demand for polysilicon is 220,000 tons. However, according to incomplete statistics, the global polysilicon production capacity in 2013 is still above 220,000 tons.

In addition, in the industry's view, the polysilicon manufacturers that have stopped production in 2012 due to the reopening of high production costs and production capacity will still be completely eliminated, which will lead to polysilicon prices tend to stabilize, and announce the end of the industry consolidation. .

Nowadays, management's measures for the implementation of the photovoltaic industry are crucial to the industry. This makes the market and the industry all look forward to photovoltaics in 2013, but at the same time, the director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategic Research and International Cooperation, A word from Li Junfeng, secretary general of the Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association, also kept a watchful eye on him. In his opinion, “producing a good policy, we must also grasp the rhythm and orderly, otherwise the photovoltaic industry Crazy again."