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In this regard, some analysts said that from the information released by the current parties, China's steel demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to improve much. As the iron ore output increases, its own price will undoubtedly be under pressure.
Fourth quarter mining price pressure
On September 30, the import mineral price index showed that the 62% Australian flour index was $130.5/ton, the 58% Australian flour index was $120.25/ton, and the 65% Brazilian flour index was $143.25/ton.
Statistics show that the average monthly price of iron ore imports has fallen from at least $3/ton since it fell below $130/ton in June. As of August 31, its price was only $118.80/ton.
It is worth noting that although China's iron ore imports reached a record high in July, it was no longer "glory" in August. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in July this year, China imported 73.14 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 10.84 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 17.4% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. The monthly import volume reached a record high. The import price of imported iron ore in August was US$118.8/ton, a slight increase from the US$118.5 in July, but the import volume of 69.01 million tons decreased by 5.6%.
In this regard, analysts said that because China's steel market is difficult to see too much improvement in the fourth quarter, iron ore prices are likely to end the previous rise. In addition, considering the expected surge in seaborne iron ore supply in the coming months, many industry observers believe that iron ore prices will fall. Statistics show that there were a total of 128 iron ore carriers in September, with a capacity of 20.235 million tons, an average of 4.27 ships (67,450 tons) per day.
Citigroup previously estimated that the four major Australian miners of BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals and Rio Tinto will produce 3.4 million tons more than the same period last year as expansion plans begin.
Analysts said that about 70% of the new production of foreign mines will mainly flow to the Chinese market.
Domestic demand is hard to see
As the world's major iron ore consumer market, China is undoubtedly the most valued by international mining companies, and the downturn in China's steel market is the most unwilling to see it. Market monitoring showed that on September 30, the domestic steel index had slipped to 3,600 yuan / ton.
The report said that as Chinese steel mills began to replenish stocks, iron ore prices rebounded 20% from the low point of May 31 this year, and the average price in the third quarter reached 132.45 US dollars / ton. Macquarie Securities even believes that iron ore prices may reach $150 to $160 per ton in the fourth quarter, supported by factors such as weather factors and replenishment stocks in Chinese steel mills.
However, there are also statistics showing that from January to August, China imported 526 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative unit price of US$129.5/ton decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. Industry insiders said: "China's inventory cycle is shifting, coupled with seasonal factors and large supply listings, iron ore prices are likely to be depressed."
According to reports, Chinese steel mills' cuts in iron ore stocks and India's measures to ease mining and export bans may lead to increased supply, which is another factor that puts iron ore prices under pressure.
It is worth noting that the increase in international iron ore supply seems to be irreversible. Among them, Australia alone is expected to increase its new production capacity by about 140 million tons in the next two years. According to reports, despite the equipment failure and unexpected rainy weather, Rio Tinto's iron ore output increased by 7% year-on-year to 51.8 million tons in the second quarter of 2013, a record high. In addition, although the company is seeking to sell assets and cut costs by $5 billion, Rio Tinto still said that its expansion of its 290 million tons/year iron ore project in Australia was launched in the third quarter of this year.
In this regard, the industry believes that from the information released by the current parties, the increase in production of foreign mining companies continues, and domestic demand does not necessarily have much improvement, the contradiction between supply and demand will undoubtedly put pressure on the price of minerals. .
Citigroup's report predicts that iron ore prices will fall to $110/ton in the fourth quarter as China's weaker demand and tightening monetary policy begin to take effect.
China's demand is hard to see, the mining price rebounds or ends
Abstract With the commencement of production of new iron ore projects in Australia and the increase in shipments in Brazil, the price of steel that has supported steel prices has declined in recent months. According to related reports recently, the benchmark iron ore price has dropped from a high of nearly 143 US dollars per ton in August to 132 US dollars per ton. with...
As Australia's new iron ore project begins to operate and shipments in Brazil increase, the price of steel that has supported steel prices has fallen in recent months. According to related reports recently, the benchmark iron ore price has dropped from a high of nearly 143 US dollars per ton in August to 132 US dollars per ton. At the same time, the relevant report released by Citi expects that the production of the three major Australian miners will be 3.4 million tons higher than the same period last year as the expansion project began to be put into production.