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Mainstream experts generally believe that overcapacity has become a prominent problem and major contradiction in the current economy, and the central government is determined to resolve it from the system.
Total data, main growth rate double drop
According to the financial data of industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 28th, from January to October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4,626.32 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of January-September. The profit of the camp activities was 4,688.42 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, and the growth rate was increased by 0.1 percentage points. Among them, the total profit realized in October was 5.810 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 3.3 percentage points lower than that in September, 1.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate from January to September. The profit from the main activity was 566.9 billion yuan. , an increase of 6%, the growth rate fell by 1.5 percentage points from September, 0.7 percentage points higher than January-September.
The data also showed that at the end of October, China's industrial enterprises above designated size accounted for 95.232 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% ​​over the same period last year. The inventory of finished products was 3,251.95 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% over the same period of last year. In terms of absolute value, finished goods inventory has been growing since the beginning of this year and has been growing for 9 months. From the perspective of growth, the growth of 6.2% is the highest in 4 months. As of October, the year-on-year growth of finished goods inventories has expanded for two consecutive months, and the increase in corporate accounts receivable has also rebounded.
Wen Caixia, a senior researcher at the Industrial Economics Research Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that the data indicates that the growth base is fragile due to overcapacity, and the pressure on production and operation in the fourth quarter will be relatively large. She said that the current producer price index PPI is still continuing to grow negatively. If the overcapacity of industrial products and insufficient market demand cannot be effectively solved, the phenomenon of deflation of industrial products may continue further, and the industry's profit differentiation will further intensify, resulting in A vicious circle of falling profits and overcapacity.
Jin Hao, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, explained this by analyzing the reasons for the decline in profits of industrial enterprises last year. He said that in 2012, the total profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.3%, down 20% from 2011. The main reason for the decline in corporate profitability is that in addition to the reduction of investment opportunities in real estate and finance, and the rise in the cost of labor and other factors, it is mainly due to the overcapacity of some industries and the vicious competition among enterprises. Even if they are unprofitable, they will continue to produce in order to survive.
Influence suppression of industrial investment production
Serious overcapacity risks are threatening the development of China's real economy. Zhao Xiaoling, a researcher at the China Macroeconomic Information Network, told the Economic Information Daily that the overcapacity of overcapacity has become the biggest obstacle to the current real economy growth. The rebound in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index PM I in October was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in the production index, while the new orders index fell back, indicating that demand has not improved significantly, and overcapacity is still serious.
Zhao Xiaoling also said that there are 2,467 A-share listed companies, of which 959 are manufacturing companies, and most of them are inextricably linked to the manufacturing industry. However, according to the quarterly report of the listed company in the third quarter, as of the end of the third quarter of 2013, the total inventory of 959 A-share listed companies in China reached 1.14 trillion yuan, a record high. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, this total inventory is almost the same as the total GDP of the five provinces in 2012, which is 6% higher than that at the end of 2012. Compared with the end of 2009, it has increased by 61%, and the excess capacity has increased. This will inhibit Industrial investment and production.
Chen Qiang, a senior economist in the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said that the contradiction of overcapacity is further highlighted as one of the major problems in China's industrial operations. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, due to the excessive use of drugs, investment growth has been too fast. China has a wide range of large-capacity and deep-impact overcapacity, and has affected the stable operation of the macro economy. According to data from relevant departments, in 2012, China's alumina capacity utilization rate was 72.5%, electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate was 78%, and aluminum industry surplus was obvious; cement production capacity was 3.1 billion tons, total output was 2.21 billion tons, and overcapacity was about 9 About 100 million tons, about 220 new dry process cement production lines under construction and proposed to be built in the cement industry. If all are completed and put into production, the total production capacity will reach 3.55 billion tons.
What is more serious is that not only the overcapacity of traditional industries such as electrolytic aluminum, steel and cement, but also some emerging industries have also experienced overcapacity, and some industries have even experienced absolute and long-term surplus. According to estimates by authoritative departments, at the end of the third quarter of 2013, the capacity utilization rate of all industrial sectors was only 78.6%. "Under the influence of overcapacity, China's industrial operation will face contradictions and problems in which product supply exceeds demand and price downward pressure is increasing in a long period of time." Chen Qiang said.
Radiation has become a major economic contradiction
In fact, the impact of overcapacity is not limited to the industry itself. Wang Jian, secretary general of the China Macroeconomics Association, told the Economic Information Daily: "What is China's current major contradiction? I think it is overproduction, so reform and structural adjustment must be carried out around this center, otherwise it will be difficult to see results. ."
He said that there are indeed many economic and social contradictions hidden inside China, but not many of these contradictions will trigger crises from within, and the crisis of overproduction is the norm in the modern market economy. China has not experienced the crisis of overproduction, but the overproduction state has existed for several years and is developing in a more serious direction. Will this situation introduce China into a crisis, which is still unknown, but 200 The historical experience of capitalist countries over the years tells us that there is an inevitable connection between overproduction and the economic crisis.
Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the current recovery of China's economy is not stable, structural contradictions are still prominent, and there are many risk factors. One of them is "surplus overcapacity and slow adjustment." According to him, according to the State Council Development Research Center's survey of overcapacity in the industries of 3,545 companies, 71% of enterprises believe that the current overcapacity is “very serious†or “seriousâ€. As of now, enterprise equipment utilization is only 72%, 0.7 percentage points lower than last year. At the same time, overcapacity is characterized by a wide range of industries and a high degree of absolute excess. Due to local protection and the lack of an effective exit mechanism, the adjustment of excess capacity has been slow. 67.7% of the companies believe that it takes at least "more than three years" to digest the current excess capacity.
The annual report made by the National Information Center ranks the top of the four factors of “prominent problems facing the economy and potential risks†in terms of “overcapacity constraints on economic recoveryâ€.
It is recommended to solve the problem from the system
All of the above institutions believe that there is no specific drug to solve the problem of overcapacity, and we must make up our mind to resolve it from the system. To this end, the National Information Center recommended "seriously implementing the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity in Production Capacity" issued by the State Council, and solving the institutional root causes of overcapacity by accelerating reform."
Specifically, the first is to reform the fiscal and taxation system, especially to rationalize the distribution mechanism between the central and local governments, reform the performance appraisal mechanism, and eliminate the strong motivation of local governments to intervene in enterprise investment; second, promote financial system reform and harden bank budget constraints. To rationalize the relationship between local governments and banks; the third is to speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises must resolutely withdraw from the general competitive areas, ensure fair market competition, and take necessary administrative measures to eliminate backward production capacity for state-owned enterprises. Fourth, improve the prices of resource products. Form a mechanism to reduce the number of projects that benefit from the transfer of resource costs; Fifth, reform the existing environmental protection system to prevent local governments from attracting foreign investment at the expense of the environment and encourage broad public supervision.
Wang Jian believes that the solution to the overproduction should promote the reform of the distribution field. He said that improving efficiency first or solving surplus first is a completely different kind of reform and adjustment orientation. The social reproduction process is divided into four links, namely, production, circulation, distribution, and consumption. If the benefit is the first orientation, the reform must focus on the production and circulation fields. The main method is to further decentralize the market and enterprises. To solve the contradiction of overproduction, the reform will inevitably focus on the distribution field.
Wang Jian said that after more than 30 years of reforms in China, the market economic system has basically taken shape, and enterprises have obtained sufficient production, operation and investment rights. Therefore, the contradiction that hinders further improvement of efficiency has shifted from the production field to the distribution field, because only When the total supply and demand of society is basically balanced, the enterprise benefits can be maximized, and the market demand caused by overproduction is shrinking, which is the biggest engulfment of corporate benefits. In addition, if the distribution mechanism is not touched, even if the efficiency level of the enterprise is raised, the profits will still be owned by the boss rather than the employees. The results of the reform will not benefit the people, and it will be difficult to obtain broad support from the society. On the contrary, it may increase the overproduction due to the growth of corporate profits. .
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Enhanced metallic coatings provide greater reflection across the
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Overcapacity becomes the main source of risk for current economic operations
Abstract According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 28th, the growth rate of total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China dropped by 3.3 percentage points from September, and the growth rate of profit from main activities fell by 1.5 percentage points from September. This double fall phenomenon is the first time in the second half of this year...
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 28th, the growth rate of total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China fell by 3.3 percentage points from September, and the growth rate of profit from main activities fell by 1.5 percentage points from September. This double fall phenomenon was first seen in the second half of this year. The main reason is that overcapacity has led to the continuous growth of China's corporate inventory this year. Data show that at the end of October, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,251.95 billion yuan, an increase of 9 consecutive months since February.