In the first three quarters of 2013, the world economy was in a fragile recovery stage, and developed economies generally improved. However, they still faced high unemployment, high deficits, and insufficient growth stamina; the structural adjustment of emerging economies lags behind, and growth has slowed markedly. Overall, the world economic situation tends to improve, but the situation is still complicated.
In the third quarter, China's macro economy was significantly better. The third quarter GDP growth reached 7.8%. The macroeconomic performance in the third quarter was better than the second quarter and better than the first half.
Under the general environment of China's economic growth slowdown, the market environment and other growth factors have changed. China's machine tool industry is undergoing a severe test of transformation and upgrading. The China Machine Tool Industry Association's key contact enterprise data and some enterprises' research shows that in the first three quarters, especially from January to August, the machine tool industry was in a low-level operation state; the overall market scale shrank, the industry's industrial structure, product structure and market demand The contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the contradiction between low-end overcapacity and lack of high-end capability is still prominent. In the first three quarters, corporate profits continued to decline and market competition became increasingly fierce. Under the situation of insufficient recovery of the world economy, the downward trend of export growth has not improved significantly; At the same time, the long-term growth of imports has also seen a sharp decline, further confirming the overall shrinking market size.
I. Completion of major economic indicators and import and export statistics from January to September
1. Major economic indicators of the statistical caliber industry of the State Administration of Taxation
(Since the first quarter of 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics will no longer provide indicators such as total industrial output value, sales value, production and sales rate, and output of CNC forming machine tools in the machine tool industry.)
(1) Machine tool industry
The machine tool industry achieved a total sales revenue of 564.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.
The machine tool industry achieved a profit of 31.46 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. The profit margin of product sales revenue was 5.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.
In the current period, the cumulative value of fixed assets investment in the machine tool industry increased by 21.1%.
(2) Gold cutting machine tool industry
Jinchee machine tool industry achieved sales revenue of 107.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
The gold cutting machine tool industry realized a profit of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 million yuan. The profit margin of product sales revenue was 3.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year.
The output of gold cutting machine tools was 538,939 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 149,302 units, which increased by -9.4% and -0.4% respectively over the same period.
(3) Forming machine tool industry
The sales volume of the forming machine tool industry reached 53.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%.
The forming machine tool industry realized a profit of 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 230 million yuan year-on-year. The product sales revenue margin was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
The output of forming machine tools was 167,287 units, a year-on-year increase of -3.3%.
2. Focus on the completion of the main economic indicators of the company's statistical caliber
The association has 214 key enterprises, involving 8 small industries, with a focus on the main business of the machine tool industry. The statistical results are quite different from the industry trends reflected by the industry data of 5188 companies in 8 small industries as counted by the National Bureau of Statistics. .
(1) The key industrial enterprises achieved a year-on-year growth of -5.4% in total industrial output value; product sales revenue increased by -5.5% year-on-year.
(2) The output value of gold cutting machine tools increased by -13.5% year-on-year, of which the output value of CNC gold cutting machine tools increased by -6.9%. The output of gold cutting machine tools increased by -14.6% year-on-year, of which CNC cutting output was flat year-on-year. Jinchao machine tool small industry product sales revenue increased by -11.0%. Total profit increased by -73.7% year-on-year.
(3) The output value of forming machine tools increased by 6.6% year-on-year, of which the output value of CNC forming machine tools increased by 10.9%. The output increased by -11.6% year-on-year, of which the output of CNC forming machine tools increased by 5.5%. Sales revenue of small machine products in forming machine tools increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Total profit increased by -21.1% year-on-year.
(4) Rolling functional components and machine tool accessories The two industries with the largest declines in industrial output value were the largest, with year-on-year growth of -15.8% and -12.4%, respectively, and their sales revenue increased by -5.4% and -7.4% respectively; machine tools and quantities The output value of cutting tool industry increased by -4.3% and -1.1% respectively, and its product sales revenue increased by -5.9% and 0.7% respectively; the output value of super-hard materials and small industry increased by 6.8%, and the sales revenue of products increased by 7.4%; CNC system industry In recent months, the growth rate was faster, the output value growth rate was 24.4%, and the product sales revenue increased by 7.6%.
3. Import and export of machine tool products
(1) The cumulative import of machine tool products was US$12.56 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was 7.98 billion US dollars, down 24.0% year-on-year. Among metal processing machines, the import of gold cutting machine tools was US$ 6.34 billion, down 25.7% year-on-year; the import of forming machine tools was US$ 1.10 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year.
(2) The export of machine tool products was US$4.46 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported 1.38 billion US dollars, up 1.7% year-on-year. Among metal processing machines, the export of gold cutting machine tools was 880 million US dollars, down 4.3% year-on-year; the export of forming machine tools was 500 million US dollars, up 14.0% year-on-year.
Second, the characteristics of the economic operation of the industry
1. Low capacity utilization and tight liquidity
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales revenue of the machine tool industry in the first three quarters showed a steady growth trend. Except for the single-digit increase of the gold-cut machine tool industry and the negative growth of the profit year-on-year, the growth of other small industries was double-digit, and the total profit was Growth situation. However, the company's key contact with enterprise data shows that the production and operation of the enterprise is severe. Except for a few small industries, the output of most small industries decreased, the sales revenue of products declined negatively, and the profits fell sharply, resulting in tight liquidity.
2. The demand structure continues to escalate and the marketing service model changes
The sluggish market is mainly reflected in the fact that the market demand structure continues to accelerate and upgrade. The demand for medium and high-end products and personalized products has increased rapidly. From January to September, the import data of metal processing machine tools and the production data of key enterprises have shown that the average price of machine tools has increased. In response to changes in market demand, industry companies continue to adjust product mix on the one hand, and accelerate the transformation and transformation of marketing models on the other, in order to gain greater market share.
3. Equipment investment has increased, and foreign investment has declined.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the secondary industry in the first three quarters increased by 17.1% year-on-year. The fixed assets investment of 14 machinery industries, such as automobiles and machine tool tools, showed that the internal combustion engine, heavy mining and food packaging machinery industry grew by more than 30% year-on-year, and the investment in the automotive industry accounted for about 1/4 of the total investment, and its cumulative accumulation in the first three quarters An increase of 15.7% means that the car and its related industries are still the focus of investment. Among the fixed assets of the 14 machinery and equipment manufacturing industries, the growth rate of equipment tool purchases is mostly higher than the growth rate of fixed assets, indicating that the fixed assets investment in the machinery industry has been implemented with the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. The proportion of investment in fixed assets such as capital construction is gradually decreasing, while the proportion of fixed assets investment in equipment and tools has increased.
4. The global economic recovery is weak, and emerging markets are hard to support
Although China's machine tool tools have seen rapid growth in exports to the US, Vietnam, Mexico and other markets since 2012, due to the weak global economic recovery and the market downturn, exports failed to maintain long-term high growth in the first three quarters. . Since 2012, the growth rate of machine tool exports has declined rapidly. Since April 2013, the cumulative export volume has fallen to a negative year-on-year. In September, the decline has been between 0.5% and 1.5%, and there is no further expansion.
The rise of infrastructure construction in Southeast Asia and South America has indirectly led to the growth of exports of Chinese machine tool products. Although the machine tools exported to the United States are still showing positive growth, the US government’s suspension in September is expected to affect its economic growth in the fourth quarter, which may have a negative impact on China’s exports in the later period.
Among the top 10 export markets, India fell by 30%; Japan fell by 10%; Germany fell by 1%; other countries and regions were positive.
Third, the full year outlook
From the on-hand orders and new orders of the key enterprises (parts) of the association, the economic operation of the industry has also improved. New orders started in March, although the growth rate has fluctuated, but it has been in positive growth, and reached the second highest point in the year in September. Although the orders in hand are negative, the momentum is also relatively obvious.
Considering the end of the year, and the low base factor at the end of 2012, the rebound in the fourth quarter of 2013 is expected to be stronger. Therefore, the forecast for the whole year is: the economic operation trend of the last three months is based on the rebound, and the annual growth rate of the industry can be expected to reach 13%~14%, with the expected growth of the key enterprises. It can be flat or slightly down throughout the year.
In the third quarter, China's macro economy was significantly better. The third quarter GDP growth reached 7.8%. The macroeconomic performance in the third quarter was better than the second quarter and better than the first half.
Under the general environment of China's economic growth slowdown, the market environment and other growth factors have changed. China's machine tool industry is undergoing a severe test of transformation and upgrading. The China Machine Tool Industry Association's key contact enterprise data and some enterprises' research shows that in the first three quarters, especially from January to August, the machine tool industry was in a low-level operation state; the overall market scale shrank, the industry's industrial structure, product structure and market demand The contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the contradiction between low-end overcapacity and lack of high-end capability is still prominent. In the first three quarters, corporate profits continued to decline and market competition became increasingly fierce. Under the situation of insufficient recovery of the world economy, the downward trend of export growth has not improved significantly; At the same time, the long-term growth of imports has also seen a sharp decline, further confirming the overall shrinking market size.
I. Completion of major economic indicators and import and export statistics from January to September
1. Major economic indicators of the statistical caliber industry of the State Administration of Taxation
(Since the first quarter of 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics will no longer provide indicators such as total industrial output value, sales value, production and sales rate, and output of CNC forming machine tools in the machine tool industry.)
(1) Machine tool industry
The machine tool industry achieved a total sales revenue of 564.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.
The machine tool industry achieved a profit of 31.46 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. The profit margin of product sales revenue was 5.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.
In the current period, the cumulative value of fixed assets investment in the machine tool industry increased by 21.1%.
(2) Gold cutting machine tool industry
Jinchee machine tool industry achieved sales revenue of 107.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
The gold cutting machine tool industry realized a profit of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 million yuan. The profit margin of product sales revenue was 3.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year.
The output of gold cutting machine tools was 538,939 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 149,302 units, which increased by -9.4% and -0.4% respectively over the same period.
(3) Forming machine tool industry
The sales volume of the forming machine tool industry reached 53.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%.
The forming machine tool industry realized a profit of 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 230 million yuan year-on-year. The product sales revenue margin was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
The output of forming machine tools was 167,287 units, a year-on-year increase of -3.3%.
2. Focus on the completion of the main economic indicators of the company's statistical caliber
The association has 214 key enterprises, involving 8 small industries, with a focus on the main business of the machine tool industry. The statistical results are quite different from the industry trends reflected by the industry data of 5188 companies in 8 small industries as counted by the National Bureau of Statistics. .
(1) The key industrial enterprises achieved a year-on-year growth of -5.4% in total industrial output value; product sales revenue increased by -5.5% year-on-year.
(2) The output value of gold cutting machine tools increased by -13.5% year-on-year, of which the output value of CNC gold cutting machine tools increased by -6.9%. The output of gold cutting machine tools increased by -14.6% year-on-year, of which CNC cutting output was flat year-on-year. Jinchao machine tool small industry product sales revenue increased by -11.0%. Total profit increased by -73.7% year-on-year.
(3) The output value of forming machine tools increased by 6.6% year-on-year, of which the output value of CNC forming machine tools increased by 10.9%. The output increased by -11.6% year-on-year, of which the output of CNC forming machine tools increased by 5.5%. Sales revenue of small machine products in forming machine tools increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Total profit increased by -21.1% year-on-year.
(4) Rolling functional components and machine tool accessories The two industries with the largest declines in industrial output value were the largest, with year-on-year growth of -15.8% and -12.4%, respectively, and their sales revenue increased by -5.4% and -7.4% respectively; machine tools and quantities The output value of cutting tool industry increased by -4.3% and -1.1% respectively, and its product sales revenue increased by -5.9% and 0.7% respectively; the output value of super-hard materials and small industry increased by 6.8%, and the sales revenue of products increased by 7.4%; CNC system industry In recent months, the growth rate was faster, the output value growth rate was 24.4%, and the product sales revenue increased by 7.6%.
3. Import and export of machine tool products
(1) The cumulative import of machine tool products was US$12.56 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was 7.98 billion US dollars, down 24.0% year-on-year. Among metal processing machines, the import of gold cutting machine tools was US$ 6.34 billion, down 25.7% year-on-year; the import of forming machine tools was US$ 1.10 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year.
(2) The export of machine tool products was US$4.46 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported 1.38 billion US dollars, up 1.7% year-on-year. Among metal processing machines, the export of gold cutting machine tools was 880 million US dollars, down 4.3% year-on-year; the export of forming machine tools was 500 million US dollars, up 14.0% year-on-year.
Second, the characteristics of the economic operation of the industry
1. Low capacity utilization and tight liquidity
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales revenue of the machine tool industry in the first three quarters showed a steady growth trend. Except for the single-digit increase of the gold-cut machine tool industry and the negative growth of the profit year-on-year, the growth of other small industries was double-digit, and the total profit was Growth situation. However, the company's key contact with enterprise data shows that the production and operation of the enterprise is severe. Except for a few small industries, the output of most small industries decreased, the sales revenue of products declined negatively, and the profits fell sharply, resulting in tight liquidity.
2. The demand structure continues to escalate and the marketing service model changes
The sluggish market is mainly reflected in the fact that the market demand structure continues to accelerate and upgrade. The demand for medium and high-end products and personalized products has increased rapidly. From January to September, the import data of metal processing machine tools and the production data of key enterprises have shown that the average price of machine tools has increased. In response to changes in market demand, industry companies continue to adjust product mix on the one hand, and accelerate the transformation and transformation of marketing models on the other, in order to gain greater market share.
3. Equipment investment has increased, and foreign investment has declined.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the secondary industry in the first three quarters increased by 17.1% year-on-year. The fixed assets investment of 14 machinery industries, such as automobiles and machine tool tools, showed that the internal combustion engine, heavy mining and food packaging machinery industry grew by more than 30% year-on-year, and the investment in the automotive industry accounted for about 1/4 of the total investment, and its cumulative accumulation in the first three quarters An increase of 15.7% means that the car and its related industries are still the focus of investment. Among the fixed assets of the 14 machinery and equipment manufacturing industries, the growth rate of equipment tool purchases is mostly higher than the growth rate of fixed assets, indicating that the fixed assets investment in the machinery industry has been implemented with the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. The proportion of investment in fixed assets such as capital construction is gradually decreasing, while the proportion of fixed assets investment in equipment and tools has increased.
4. The global economic recovery is weak, and emerging markets are hard to support
Although China's machine tool tools have seen rapid growth in exports to the US, Vietnam, Mexico and other markets since 2012, due to the weak global economic recovery and the market downturn, exports failed to maintain long-term high growth in the first three quarters. . Since 2012, the growth rate of machine tool exports has declined rapidly. Since April 2013, the cumulative export volume has fallen to a negative year-on-year. In September, the decline has been between 0.5% and 1.5%, and there is no further expansion.
The rise of infrastructure construction in Southeast Asia and South America has indirectly led to the growth of exports of Chinese machine tool products. Although the machine tools exported to the United States are still showing positive growth, the US government’s suspension in September is expected to affect its economic growth in the fourth quarter, which may have a negative impact on China’s exports in the later period.
Among the top 10 export markets, India fell by 30%; Japan fell by 10%; Germany fell by 1%; other countries and regions were positive.
Third, the full year outlook
From the on-hand orders and new orders of the key enterprises (parts) of the association, the economic operation of the industry has also improved. New orders started in March, although the growth rate has fluctuated, but it has been in positive growth, and reached the second highest point in the year in September. Although the orders in hand are negative, the momentum is also relatively obvious.
Considering the end of the year, and the low base factor at the end of 2012, the rebound in the fourth quarter of 2013 is expected to be stronger. Therefore, the forecast for the whole year is: the economic operation trend of the last three months is based on the rebound, and the annual growth rate of the industry can be expected to reach 13%~14%, with the expected growth of the key enterprises. It can be flat or slightly down throughout the year.
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