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In this regard, Zhu Min, vice president of the International Monetary Fund IMF, said during the IMF 2015 spring annual meeting that the primary problem in China's property market is that the vacancy rate is too high, and the vacant area is 1 billion square meters. The real estate operating rate should be maintained at a medium level. , but also to further increase the sales rate. This means that China's housing prices are still too high, and housing prices will continue to adjust.
Vacancy rate is fierce
The 1 billion square meters of vacant area data provided by Zhu Min is shocking.
Before Zhu Min provided the above data, Southwest China University of Finance professor Gan Li [microblogging] survey data on the "China Family Financial Survey Project (CHFS)" showed that the urban vacancy rate in urban areas was 22.4%, about 49 million housing units. . However, this data was questioned by Ren Zhiqiang, former chairman of Huayuan Real Estate.
Although the topic of "high vacancy rate" has repeatedly sparked heated debates in the industry, there is no authoritative data on vacancy rates. The National Bureau of Statistics has publicly responded that the vacancy rate cannot be calculated because the concept of vacancy rate and vacancy is not clear.
Previously, many residential construction departments or housing management departments have also organized the inspection of urban housing, but ultimately it is difficult to implement due to factors such as manpower and insufficient funds.
The public has also tried various methods to collect relevant data, including the most primitive "black light" method. State Grid [microblogging] company published results of 660 cities nationwide in 2010, with up to 65.4 million sets of residential electricity meters reading for six consecutive months. However, various existing algorithms have been evaluated as “not representative†by the industry, and data statistics are “not authoritativeâ€.
At the end of 2014, the standard ranking agency published the “China Ghost City†Index Ranking (2014). Among them, the top ten cities in the “Ghost City†index are Erlianhot, Qinzhou, Lhasa, Jiayuguan, Jinggangshan, Weihai, Xilinhot, Jiaxing, Shizuishan and Sanya. The list predicts that China may have nearly 50 “ghost towns†in the future.
The ranking is based on the fact that the Ministry of Housing and Construction has a land occupation standard of 10,000 people per square kilometer of built-up area. According to this standard, the possibility of a city becoming a “ghost town†or “empty city†is calculated by the proportion of urban population and built-up area, and this value is called “ghost city indexâ€.
However, this data is not convincing. Liu Shilin, dean of the Urban Science Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, pointed out that according to the compilation of urban planning in China, it is basically a period of 20 years, and it takes several years for residents to move in after the completion of the new city. The selected five-year data is too short to be concluded objectively and in line with the laws of urban development.
“Actually, the government authorities also understand the impact of vacant houses on the market,†a person in charge of the Beijing Housing Association told reporters. “But the concept of vacancy is not unified at present, which also affects the data in this area. Investigation and statistics."
He believes that for various reasons, some residential data is unwilling to be publicly disclosed by the government, but this part of the information is crucial. After the introduction of the real estate registration system, most of the data is expected to be made public, which is the main body of all aspects of the real estate industry. Both can provide meaningful data references and help local governments adjust policies to local conditions.
Feng Jun, chief economist of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, analyzed that “after the introduction of the real estate registration system, the concept of vacancy will have a clear definition, and the implementation of the system will also have specific statistical requirements for residential housing. ."
Escape from the third- and fourth-tier cities
Although the official does not have clear vacancy rate data, the “empty city†crisis in third- and fourth-tier cities is still fermenting.
“In the past few years, real estate enterprises have been forced to develop pressures in first- and second-tier cities, and they have turned to third- and fourth-tier cities for city-building movements, and many new buildings have been built. However, the growth rate of the real economy has slowed down, which has made it difficult to sell real estate. Inevitably." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.
Taking Jiangsu Nantong as an example, public data shows that the cumulative transaction volume of Nantong in the past few years exceeded 75 million square meters. With the current de-speed, the digestion time needs to be nearly 15 years, and the per capita housing construction area is 40.9 square meters. More than Beijing, Shanghai and other places.
“The backlog of stocks before the third- and fourth-tier cities is huge, and the demand is limited. Therefore, these regions are brewing a huge risk of bubble bursting,†said Zhang Dawei, director of the Central Plains Real Estate Market Research Department.
Zhang Dawei believes that the volume of new homes in third- and fourth-tier cities has been at a low level since 2013, and a new property market crisis may occur at any time. Before, due to the withdrawal of investment funds in the property market and the sharp fall in house prices, Wenzhou and Erdos collapsed. Such a case may be staged again in the future.
The developer has already made a choice. “Last year, Ocean Shipping has already cleared its strategy of exiting third- and fourth-tier cities through a series of projects. At present, the newly added land bank of Sino-Ocean Land has 7 million square meters, mainly concentrated in Beijing and Shanghai.†Li Ming, the president of Sino-Ocean Land, has performed in the ocean. The presentation is clearly stated.
There are not a few housing companies that have made the same choices as Ocean Shipping. From the perspective of the 2015 land acquisition strategy disclosed by some housing companies, housing companies are increasingly cautious about the choice of land in third- and fourth-tier cities. Vanke said that when it comes to entering a new city, only cities with population, infrastructure, industry, and employment that support the residential market will be considered. Fangxing, Shimao, Wharf and other housing companies have indicated that they will gradually withdraw from the third- and fourth-tier cities.
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1 billion square meters of vacant houses suspected: the city's movement caused a serious supply surplus
Abstract In the third- and fourth-tier cities such as Erdos, Huizhou and Changzhou, the empty roads and the sparsely populated urban new districts have already become the most common scenes. It is an indisputable fact that the large-scale urban-building movements in many cities have led to a serious supply surplus. In this regard, the International Monetary Fund IM...
In the third- and fourth-tier cities such as Erdos, Huizhou and Changzhou, the empty roads and the sparsely populated urban new districts have already become the most common scenes. It is an indisputable fact that the large-scale urban-building movements in many cities have led to a serious supply surplus.