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Separately speaking, the first is how to stabilize the overall situation when the risk is now accumulated to a considerable height. I think there are two aspects: one is to take measures to control and mitigate risks. The risk is already there. If you want to control it, you don't have to have a chain reaction to spread. There is a domino effect, and it will fall down a big piece. On the other hand, it is necessary to find ways to resolve existing risks, such as not rushing to go to hospital, and investing heavily in construction projects that have no return or low returns. To properly handle the debt of local governments, it is necessary to use state-owned capital to repay the hidden liabilities of capital. The biggest hidden liability is the gap of social security.
The Third Plenary Session resolved to allocate state-owned assets to supplement the social security fund. This has two functions: one is to fill the gap, otherwise it can't cope with it when it breaks out; the other one, the current co-ordinated payment is too high, and with this fund to supplement, you can lower the contribution rate and reduce the burden of excessive business. To stop the blood transfusion of "zombie enterprises" and stop the "rigid redemption", bankruptcy or reorganization of insolvent enterprises means that the small earthquake has been shaken, the risks have been released, and no major earthquakes have been accumulated. There is another one that is difficult to do: we have a lot of dead assets. First, some cities have large houses that cannot be sold. In some cities, the way to use them in the past is to let the people in the county enter the hukou of the provincial capital. However, this potential is limited, and the resources of prefecture-level cities and county-level cities have been drained. The other is that there are a large number of development zones in some places, and the infrastructure has been done, but no enterprises have entered. In short, we must come up with ways and measures to resolve the risks.
On the other hand, Keynesian short-term policies should sometimes be used, but they should be used. Macroeconomic policies are mainly of two types, one is fiscal policy and the other is monetary policy. One American economist, also the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute, Kuang Chaoming, wrote a book about the balance sheet crisis. It tells a point of view. I think it is worth noting: there is a current balance sheet crisis. For example, if the bubble bursts, financial debt is difficult. Because cash is king, people have to keep the liquidity of money. In this case, monetary policy is useless.
People will not invest money in the industry, but will definitely find a place that is highly mobile and easy to evacuate, such as the stock market. Therefore, he believes that in the event of a balance sheet recession, macroeconomic policies should be used, that is, fiscal policies should be mainly used. I agree with this view point.
Therefore, we must increase the intensity of the fiscal deficit. The so-called expansionary fiscal policy is actually a deficit policy. There are two ways to expand the deficit in the next step, that is, to increase fiscal policy. One way is to increase spending, and one way is to reduce income. Chinese officials like to increase spending. The Chinese said that "there is no rice in the hand, and the chicken does not come." If you have a handful of rice in your hand, the chicken will be corresponding and you will get the ballot. But the government pays, whether it is investment or subsidies, generally speaking, the effect is not good. I think the main method should not be to increase spending, but to reduce income. The current slogan is "structural tax cuts." I think that the government decides which tax reduction is easy to distort the price and undermine the equal competition. Therefore, it is recommended to implement the inclusive reduction. Now our entrepreneurs lack confidence and lack of enthusiasm. This is a very big problem. To solve this problem, it is certainly not enough to reduce the tax, but there are always some benefits.
Starting from these two aspects, I feel that I can maintain a big crisis for a period of time, take the disease to prolong, and strive for time to carry out reforms. This can gradually turn into a virtuous circle. This can be done, but if you start early, it will be a problem if you delay it for too long. Last year, when discussing the new normal, some measures were taken to control and resolve risks, and some were already in place.
The key to success or failure lies in whether the reform measures can be implemented.
It is necessary to establish a good system through reform. A good system is, in general, the two words of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee: "To make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation, we must also play a better role in the government." But now it seems that there is one Kind of understanding, the Third Plenary Session said that both sides must play a role, half a catty, must be strengthened. I feel that it is necessary to understand that the scope of the two is different, and their respective functions are different. In the allocation of resources, the market should play a decisive role. The basic functions of the market are two in our economics. The first is to effectively allocate resources, and the second is to form a compatible incentive mechanism that can stimulate the enthusiasm and creativity of entrepreneurs and employees.
The current key tasks of the supply-side structural reforms are “three to one, one reduction, one subsidy†(going capacity, destocking, de-leveraging, cost reduction, and short-boarding). This "three to one, one reduction and one supplement" is the problem that the market is targeting. "To de-capacity, destocking, and short-boarding" is to use economics language to realize the effective re-allocation of resources and make limited resources from the market through competition. Low-level, oversupply companies and departments flow out to higher-efficiency departments that are in short supply. The market is the most effective to do this, but now many places are still keen on the government to do: use the indicators to go to the production capacity, go to inventory; fill the short board, it is also decided by the government agencies, what industries to develop, what technology to use The route, the government subsidies, support, and loans. In fact, we can see what the government is doing in developing strategic emerging industries over the years.
Last year in Beijing at the "Electric Vehicles 100 People's Association", it was said that the government's support for electric vehicle development had already cost 100 million yuan before last year. In conclusion, some money is not well spent, so there is no effect. For example, there is a centrally launched “Ten Cities and Thousands of Planesâ€, and ten cities are selected. Each city gives 1,000 buses. The subsidy of the bus is very high. I hope that there will be a thousand vehicles in ten cities, and the scale of 10,000 vehicles may be close to the lowest so-called economic scale. After the lowest economic scale is reached, it will be able to turn itself up.
However, the method of supplementing here is wrong. Originally, it should be supplemented by the demand side. In the market, it is necessary to make up the supplement. It is to supplement the consumer and make up the purchaser. The method we use is to supplement the supplier and supply the manufacturer. Therefore, all localities have asked for “I Also participate in ", and finally 25 cities, a city of 1,000, that is 25,000 cars, this should be said to the lowest effective economic scale, but because it is a supply side, fertilizer and water are not flowing outside the field, the scale is also It is a thousand cars, and the result is completely ineffective. Last year, it was changed to the main demand side, but the legal system seems to have problems. A fake demand side came out, and the left hand sold the right hand and colluded. The supplier sells it to the demander. After the subsidy receives the subsidy, the buyer will return the money to the supplier and buy it again. The two parties will divide the subsidy. This kind of fraud is now being investigated. Therefore, the government should pay great attention when it works in the market.
The other is to reduce costs, or to de-leverage. In many places, the main method of administrative orders is also used. A vice president of a mobile communication provider said: "Our days are really sad. Some departments give us the next indicators, we need to mention the speed of the network and reduce the tariff. Another department gives us the next indicator, and we want to increase the profitability. The government is tired and we are very tired."
Later, he said a word: "In fact, if the industry is letting go of competition, we will try our best to do it." At present, the competition in this industry is very poor. Three generations of mobile communications, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued three cards, one card was issued in the morning. Two cards were issued in the afternoon. Why did he approve the three licenses to be issued twice? The first one is called "autonomous technology." We have to show that we support independent technology. In fact, this technology was not very successful in the third generation, so the operators responsible for promoting this technology did not like it, and the operation effect was really bad. In fact, these things should be done by the market through rewards and punishments, survival of the fittest, and the market can be done very efficiently.
What does the government want to do? The Third Plenary Session said that it is better to play the role of the government. Who is this "better" than? It is compared with the past practice. In his explanation of the "Decision" of the Third Plenary Session, General Secretary Xi said that the core question is whether the government plays a decisive role in resource allocation or whether the market plays a decisive role. The government crossed the border and did something that he should not do. The role of the government is to provide public goods, rather than directly intervening in the microeconomic activities of the enterprise.
Therefore, when the government works, it is necessary to do something. Some things can't be done. We can't directly organize financing, directly handle projects, and should not specify technical routes. I often see leading comrades in some departments, or local leading comrades. When I go to the enterprise, I will tell people that "this technology is good, you are engaged in this technology."
How can he know which technology is good? Don't say that officials don't know, entrepreneurs don't know. This should be determined by the market and judged by the market. The government should not set administrative licenses illegally, and should not set market access illegally. On the other hand, it is necessary to implement the negative list system as soon as possible, not to interfere with the judiciary, implement local protection, and do not impose policy inclinations on individual enterprises and undermine the competitive environment. The government has given strong policy inclinations and support to high-tech enterprises. It seems to be very good, but it has helped him and has hit thousands of other industries.
Shenzhen has always been very supportive, but because resources are scarce, that is to say, it is limited. Supporting some enterprises means harming and attacking other enterprises. For example, the support for electric vehicles is very strong. China has a prestigious academician who told me that his students' skills may be at the advanced level in the world. If you want more than 20 mu of land, you cannot approve it. Finally, I found a lot of leaders and I was very helpful. After a few years, I still couldn’t approve it. The reason is that our system is like this. He is not in the key support list, he has to "walk the procedure", and this procedure has not been approved for several years. There are quite a few things like this.
The government should do something, it should be "doing something", and what is the problem? The basic function of the government is to provide public goods, such as a good system, a stable macroeconomic environment, basic social security, and a good education system and scientific research system. Education and scientific research, especially basic education and basic research, are external and leading. It is difficult for enterprises to do it. This is the responsibility of the government and should be done. In the case of a relatively low level of market development, there are some microscopic things that may require government intervention, but pay attention to methods.
The hot topic now is PPP. PPP is mainly for so-called “quasi-public goodsâ€. The first successful example is Japan. Originally, the semiconductor integrated circuit was very backward. When it was in the stage of technology catch-up, it used the PPP method. It found 8 semiconductor companies to fund, and the government correspondingly funded it to form an independent legal entity. After development, all patents and all proprietary Technology has been paid to the society and it has been very successful. Later, many countries used this approach, either PPP, or the government led the organization of industry alliances to develop such shared technologies. But be sure to note that this development is before the competition. Pre-competition development can subsidize, and when it comes to market competition, it cannot be subsidized. If you subsidize one enterprise, it will hit all other enterprises, which is to undermine competition.
For those companies with good external benefits, subsidies can be made to eliminate the effects of externalities. But this time must pay attention to methods. Regarding the reduction of electric vehicles, California uses the best method. They do not use subsidies and use emissions credits. Tesla got a lot of money, not from the government, but because it sells emissions because it is zero-emissions. Some gasoline-gas vehicles buy emissions. Through such an approach, the cost of limiting emissions is distributed among the companies that produce fuel vehicles without paying. Of course, this requires better social integrity and a better legal system. So reform is a comprehensive reform.
Another one is planning. Planning to provide a predictive message is not a planned plan. Since the key to success or failure lies in advancing reform, there is now a problem that must be prevented. Liu Shangxi, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, first proposed that as far as the Ministry of Finance is concerned, since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, there has been a trend in implementing the reform plan of the Third Plenary Session, that is, the document has been issued too much. not enough. He called "driving on the ice, idling", the first document has not yet finished the second document, and there is no time to digest and implement. I think the phenomenon he pointed out must be changed. At the recent meetings of the deep reform group, the central leadership repeatedly said that "the screws must be tightened", and the main responsibility of the reform should be put in place, so that the reform decisions of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the Fourth Plenary Session, and the Fifth Plenary Session will take root. . (The author of this article: famous economist, researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council.)
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Wu Jinglian: The government decides who will cut taxes and will undermine equal competition.
Abstract I think that the government decides which tax reduction is easy to distort the price and undermine the equal competition. Therefore, it is recommended to implement the inclusive reduction. Now our entrepreneurs lack confidence and lack of enthusiasm. This is a very big problem. To solve this problem, it is certainly not enough to reduce the tax, but...
I think that the government decides which tax reduction is easy to distort the price and undermine the equal competition. Therefore, it is recommended to implement the inclusive reduction. Now our entrepreneurs lack confidence and lack of enthusiasm. This is a very big problem. To solve this problem, it is certainly not enough to reduce the tax, but there are always some benefits. The government decides who will cut taxes and will undermine equal competition.
What is the strategy for us to deal with the challenges in the current situation? Under the premise of stabilizing the overall situation and ensuring that no systemic risks occur, we will focus on the main forces, aim to promote reforms, and rely on dynamic institutional mechanisms to improve the efficiency of the supply side. Only in this way can we fundamentally solve the problems we face. Now that the risks have accumulated, small risks are inevitable, but we must do everything possible to prevent the outbreak of systemic risks and to gain time for reforms. However, the reforms will not be effective immediately. We need to use this method to stabilize it, set aside time for reform, and then push the reforms to make the whole direction shift and gradually enter a benign cycle.