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Wang Shouyang analyzed that the main factors affecting the international market of bulk commodities next year are as follows: 1. The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly next year, and the overall economic prospects are promising. The negative factors will not increase in addition to the EU sovereign debt crisis. Commodity demand is still optimistic, and some commodities will have tight supply and demand constraints to support commodity prices. In addition, the Fed’s implementation of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy has intensified global liquidity and increased expected inflation, which will also become an important factor in accelerating price increases.
Based on the analysis of the main factors and above, by establishing a model for prediction, Wang Shouyang concluded as follows:
First, the energy price is expected to continue to rise. In 2010, the average price of WTI crude oil was 89 US dollars per barrel, up 12% year-on-year, and the fluctuation range was 70 to 105 US dollars per barrel. The growth of global crude oil demand has laid a solid foundation for the rise of oil prices. Next year, global oil demand will be 87 million barrels next year, which is about 1.7% higher than this year. The weakening trend of the dollar and the increase in speculation will increase the price of oil, especially in the future. It may attract more investment funds to pay attention to the increase in oil prices.
Second, the prices of agricultural products will remain at a high level, and some varieties that are rising too fast will face certain downward pressure. The average price of CBTO wheat next year will be 684 cents per Pusers, up 18% year-on-year. Soybean futures prices are expected to be between 1150 and 1500 cents per Puer, with an average price of 1,290 cents per Puchel, up 24% year-on-year. Overall, the prices of major agricultural products futures will face greater upward pressure next year. Some agricultural products are out of balance between supply and demand, and inflation inflation pressure is relatively high, which provides support for high-priced grain operations.
Third, non-ferrous metals will remain at high levels and will fluctuate drastically. Next year's London Nonferrous Metals Exchange March copper futures price will fluctuate between 7300 and 10,000 US dollars per ton, the average price is 8666 US dollars per ton, up 15% year-on-year, but the price is rising too fast and the global economy is facing downside risks, it is expected Copper prices will face greater pressure on the correction. Gold futures prices will remain at a high level, facing certain pressures of correction. It is expected that gold futures prices will fluctuate between $1,250 and $1,650 per ounce next year, with an average price of $1,418 per ounce, up 11.6% year-on-year. In the second half of next year, gold prices may face certain pressures of correction. Commodity price forecasts generally have a high possibility of rising commodity futures next year. The risk of speculative economic operation and the adjustment of profit policies of major banks will impact the global commodity futures market and intensify. Market price fluctuations.
Energy prices continue to rise next year, non-ferrous metals face a correction
On December 17, at the "2011: New Starting Point, New Layout and New Opportunities" Annual Investment Strategy Report, Wang Shouyang, Associate Dean of the Institute of Mathematics and Systems Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Director of the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, estimated that the global economy will increase next year. The speed will slow down slightly, and the demand for bulk commodities is still optimistic, supporting the price up.