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Building materials industry: North China South China Cement prices continue to rise
Last week, the national cement market price fell by 0.24% from last week. The areas where prices have risen mainly include Hangzhou and Haikou, with a range of 20-30 yuan/ton; the declines are mainly in Beijing, Hebei, Shandong and Guangdong Pearl River Delta, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton. Cement prices in North China continue to decline. Prices in Beijing, Hebei Shijiazhuang, Handan, Xingtai and other regions continued to fall, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton. The main reason for the price decline is that the market supply exceeds demand. After the production lines of various enterprises resume production, the market share competition is fierce and the price is constant. Go lower. At the same time, the price of clinker is also lower by 20 yuan / ton, and the lowest ex-factory price of clinker in Hebei Province is 220 yuan / ton. The company has no profit, only to maintain cash flow. Prices in the Northeast are stable and small. Prices in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces continued to be stable. The price in western Liaoning was affected by the fall in Hebei prices, falling back by RMB 10-20/ton, while other regions remained stable. At present, the production lines of enterprises in central Liaoning are still in production. From the 20th onwards, production will resume. The clinker pressure of each enterprise is not high. In May, Liaoning Province suspend production for 15 days, providing a guarantee for the cement price to be successfully raised and stabilized. Cement prices in East China have been mixed. In the early period of Shandong Province, the price of cement was raised by 10-20 yuan/ton by limited production. After the production line was fully restored, the demand in the downstream market was weak, and the prices continued to fall. However, the overall price of cement in northern Shandong Province remained high. The market transaction price is basically stable at 360-380 yuan / ton. The market price of Hangzhou, Zhejiang is up by 30 yuan/ton. On May 18th, the leading enterprises in Hangzhou, Zhejiang decided to raise the price by 30 yuan/ton, the target price in the canal area mentioned 350 yuan/ton, the urban area mentioned 370-390 yuan/ton, and the Shaoxing and Xiaoshan areas will also increase 30 yuan/ Ton. From the tracking situation, some enterprises issued notices on the day of price increase, and some enterprises did not issue formal notices. In the current market situation, there is a big uncertainty in whether or not the price can be raised against the market. On the one hand, the production line that was originally discontinued in early May has resumed normal production. If you want to raise the price and maintain stability from late May to early June. It can only continue to reduce production substantially. On the other hand, the price in the surrounding areas is 40-50 yuan/ton lower than that in Hangzhou. If the market price in Hangzhou is raised by 30 yuan/ton, the price difference will be 70 yuan/ton. The foreign cement will be There is a certain increase. Prices in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places continued to remain stable. At present, Shanghai's high-standard floor price is basically around 310 yuan / ton, the provincial cement price is 290-300 yuan / ton, the local and foreign cement price gap has been significantly reduced, the market price continues to fall, limited space, downstream demand is still tepid Enterprise inventory is still deadlocked at around 70%. In early May, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong fell downwards by 10-20 yuan/ton. The price drop was mainly affected by the rainy weather and the sluggish downstream demand. The stocks of various enterprises were rising and the prices were falling. The price of cement in Haikou area was raised by RMB 20/ton. The amount of cement entering the island was small, and the competition among enterprises on the island was also weakened. As demand increased, the relationship between supply and demand was basically balanced, and enterprises took the initiative to raise the price of cement. Other regions maintain a steady price of thermal coal. According to the judgment of our coal team, the current power plant inventory is at a high level, the downstream demand for coal is not strong, and the short-term coal price is under pressure. Industry view: We believe that the policy fine-tuning is gradually shifting to steady growth, especially in the recent speech by Premier Wen, who pointed out that stable growth will be placed in a more important position, including expanding the scope of pilot projects for building materials to the countryside, and strengthening the construction of municipal engineering and railways. Supporting private capital to enter the railway, etc., we judge that the infrastructure represented by municipal engineering and railways is expected to become the main force of "stable growth." In 2012, the railway construction arrangement of fixed assets investment is 500 billion yuan, of which the capital construction investment is 400 billion yuan. We believe that the probability of completing the plan as planned is large, considering that the completion amount in January-April is only 89.60 billion, down 48.3% year-on-year. (Including capital construction investment of 71.71 billion, down 54.1% year-on-year), then construction in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate or return to normal levels. Since the beginning of 2010, the building materials have been proposed for the first time in the central government, and the support for farmers to build houses has been proposed as an initiative to expand domestic demand. In October 2010, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the “Notice on Promoting the Launch of Building Materials to the Countrysideâ€, Shandong and Ningxia became In the pilot provinces to promote building materials to the countryside, during the pilot period, building materials went to the countryside to promote cement products to the countryside; in September 2011, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and other five ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Doing a Pilot to Expand Building Materials to the Countryside in 2011" The pilot scope is Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Chongqing, and Ningxia. The pilot content is to continue to promote cement to the countryside, promote the use of bulk cement, and subsidize farmers who use energy-saving building materials and adopt material-saving measures. We learned that due to the wide coverage of building materials to the countryside, the actual operation is still to promote cement to the countryside and promote bulk cement. In addition, the “Pilot Notice†pointed out that the Ministry of Finance will give partial subsidies, but the central government did not In the budget, there are also differences in the subsidy program, and the pilot project of "building materials to the countryside" has slowed down in the promotion. We estimate that the contribution of the pilot provinces to the rural demand for cement in 2011 is very limited. According to the analysis of the pilot situation in Shandong Province in 2011, the cement consumption driven by building materials to the countryside is about 3 million tons, accounting for the province's cement consumption. About 3%, Ningxia accounts for about 2.5%. At present, the price of cement in the eastern region is still in a downward trend. However, we believe that under the expectation of policy relaxation, the cement stocks with infrastructure-based demand in the downstream region of the northwest region may experience a resilience increase in valuation in the short term, which may be of great interest to the return of railways and the 2012 region. There are new Qilian Mountains with relatively few new production capacity. We still maintain a "neutral" rating on cement stocks.