In the new year, the steel market may experience large purchases

In general, in order to cope with the demand release behavior that will occur in the future, the traders will make a certain amount of stock preparations at the end of the year. However, due to the slowdown in the global economic growth this year, consumer demand is relatively weak, the prosperity of the major steel industry has declined, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment has also been slowing down. The construction industry is also negatively impacted by capital and macroeconomic regulation. Because of this, in 2011, there was no winter storage behavior in previous years. Even many steel traders stated that due to poor sales, orders for this year have been greatly reduced, and the volume of imports and exports has dropped to a lower level. Before the Spring Festival, traders lack the enthusiasm for picking goods. After the year, with the return of steel traders and the start of outdoor operations, will there be large purchases in the steel market?

According to market reports, as of the close on the 29th, the price of the second largest snail in the Beijing market was 4040, which was the same as the previous day; the second largest screw in the Shanghai market was 4120-4150 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day; Shanghai The market closing price of hot coils was 4240-4270 yuan/ton, which was slightly higher than before the holiday; Tianjin hot market closing price was 4100-4120 yuan/ton, which was stable before the holiday; Lecong market hot coil closing price was 4330-4340 yuan/ton The price is stable. In the new year, the domestic steel price is still not a hot one. Due to the heavy pessimism in the market years ago, the steel traders' winter storage behavior was inhibited, and some resources on the market are now out of stock.

It is understood that because it is not optimistic about the trend of steel prices after the year, years ago, steel traders basically shipped, and the overall inventory on the market is not too much. After the end of the year, the new round of construction will start gradually. Coupled with the recent good weather everywhere, the consumption demand for steel will gradually increase. Although China’s real estate will continue to be regulated in 2012, the new start-up target for affordable housing in 2012 is 7 million units, plus the part of 2011 that has not actually started construction. It is expected that the newly-started area of ​​affordable housing in 2012 will still be higher than Slightly more in 2011, in this case, the construction industry will have a slightly more pronounced effect on the demand for steel products than in 2011.

In the raw materials market, the author believes that tight supply will constitute long-term support for raw material prices. It is understood that the current raw material market is entering the stage where reverse efficiency is beginning to appear. The performance of this stage is that the decline in the quality of raw materials will compel producers to increase their consumption, which will drive up costs, which will promote the realization of raw material prices. Long-term rise. The author believes that with the decline of ore grades and lack of project funds, the supply of raw materials will face tight problems after the end of the year, and the supply side will also be unable to keep up with the increase in demand. Therefore, the cost support for the recent steel price is expected. It will be more obvious.

As for the sea freight index, according to news reported on the 25th, the recent dry bulk freight index of the Baltic Trade Sea Exchange continued to decline and fell to the lowest level in more than three years. Due to the slowdown in freight transportation and excess supply of boats, market confidence continued to be weighed down, and China, the largest buyer, left due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which put pressure on the market. Therefore, everyone now expects that Chinese consumers can quickly end the Spring Festival holiday and return to the market in order to make a turn for the dry bulk shipping market. However, judging from the current situation, the shipping sector is expected to face problems of oversupply and economic downturn in the coming months, including concerns about the diminished demand for raw materials in China. Increased ship supply, economic uncertainty, difficulties, and China's economic slowdown will all put pressure on dry bulk rates in the coming months.

In terms of crude steel production, according to the latest statistics from China Steel Spot Net, as the world's largest steel producer, China's crude steel production in 2011 was 695.5 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, accounting for 45.5 percent of the world's total crude steel output. %, 44.7% in 2010. Japan is the second steel producing country and its output is 107.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The third steel-producing country is the United States, with a production of 86.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. In view of the declining global economic growth, it is estimated that the inventory in circulation will also decline slightly this year. As a result, the global crude steel output growth will be slightly lower than the demand growth rate. It is expected that the output in 64 countries and regions will increase by 4.4% to 1.56 billion tons. Global output increased to 1.594 billion tons. The huge demand for crude steel in 2012 still made many steel traders see hope.

The so-called "a year's plan is in the spring," and after the market opens in the year, steel prices will generally rise in inertia. In the later period, with the gradual release of demand, the steel market is expected to see a big purchase. At present, from the perspective of the steel prices issued by major steel mills such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel in February, they are mainly based on flat prices. It seems that these steel mills have already recognized the bottom price of the current steel market. The gradual implementation of the policy is estimated that in February or March, the long-term depressed steel market will show signs of recovery.