The fall in iron ore prices has gradually become a consensus, but whether the specific price is truly reflected is a question mark. At the 2013 International Conference on Metallurgical and Mineral Products, Zhang Changfu, vice president of China Steel Association, said that the iron ore supply and demand relationship will be balanced in the future, iron ore prices will enter the downward channel, and the factors supporting the high price in the past two years are no longer exist. On March 21, he told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that due to the weakening demand in the steel market, China's annual steel production growth rate is about 2% to 3%. At the same time, under the influence of overcapacity of steel, the competition is fierce. Steel prices continue to be low and iron ore prices are unlikely to remain high for a long time. Driven by the high price of iron ore, global ore supply has increased significantly, and iron ore is shifting from the seller's market to the buyer's market. The reporter learned from the above meeting that in 2012, Rio Tinto's output was 199 million tons, an increase of 7.1 million tons from 2011, an increase of 3.7%; BHP Billiton output was 160 million tons, an increase of 7.43% compared with 2011's 11.4 million tons; FMG last year's output It was 67.7 million tons, an increase of 13.88 million tons, an increase of 25.7%; the Vale last year was 320 million tons, an increase of 8.17 million tons, and the four major mines increased by 40.54 million tons. Zhang Changfu expects that the above four major mines will add about 50 million tons in 2013, and other countries in the world will increase the supply of iron ore accordingly. "It is estimated that the global new iron ore output will be 60 million to 70 million tons this year. The growth rate of iron ore is obviously higher than that of steel production. The relationship between supply and demand has changed significantly." Zhang Changfu said. Through the “going out†strategy, China’s equity mines have increased by more than 20 million tons, and domestic iron ore raw ore is expected to continue to grow by more than 100 million tons. A number of well-known institutions expect the international iron ore price in 2013 to be between $120 and $130. World mines such as Vale predict that iron ore tonnage prices will fluctuate around $120 this year. At present, the reference price on the market is mostly based on the Platts Index (prepared by Platts Energy Information, which is an important iron ore price index). Among them, not only the three major international mines use indices in trading, but other mines in the world are also used to reference this. An index trades. "We are all looking at the index price, how the index rises and falls, after our ship comes, it will be sold according to the index." A high-ranking trading company in Shandong said. Zhang Changfu said that at present, the Platts index generally adopted by large mines seems to be fair, but it is not reasonable. "This price comes from sampling less than 10% of the sales volume. The price information determines the price of most agreements. This is neither fair nor reasonable for the majority of users." On the same day, Zhang Dianbo, general manager of Baosteel Group's Purchasing Center, said in an interview with this reporter that the current problem is not that the index is more reasonable, but that the trading volume of the spot is too small. “Each index takes a small sample to represent the majority. The representation is not enough, this is the most critical." In order to change the above situation, some steel mills are counting on China's iron ore spot trading platform. Zhang Changfu believes that to form an open and transparent price formation mechanism, its hopeful roadmap is to do a good job in China's iron ore spot trading, increase the supply and purchase volume of the spot market, and find iron ore spot through open and transparent transactions between the supply and demand sides. The transaction price, use this price as the basis for the long association trade. However, a new problem that emerged at the moment was: At present, Chinese steel mills are still dominated by Changxie Mine, and there are very few realties from the spot market. The four major mines, which account for the world’s major trade volume, are also not invested in the platform. Too much amount. "The problem is not the buyer's participation, but the market is now set up, but no one is there to sell things." Zhang Dianbo said.
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