Refined oil prices once again faced with stranding

After the price adjustment of refined oil retails was aground on August 3rd, this Saturday (August 17th) or the price adjustment conditions that did not meet the requirement of RMB 50/ton due to a rise or fall was again ran aground.

Yesterday (August 13th), the monitoring data obtained by the Daily Economic News (Microblog) reporter from a number of market institutions showed that the price adjustment of refined oil products on this Saturday was fundamentally pinned. This will be the implementation of the new mechanism, the domestic oil price adjustment suffered "secondary stranded", but also the fourth stranded after the implementation of the new gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism.

Analysts believe that the expectation that the price adjustment will be stranded again will aggravate the current downturn in the domestic refined oil market. The wholesale link oil prices continue to decline, and the wholesale and retail price gaps have reached a new high during the year. PetroChina and Sinopec have already lost money in some areas, but the actual results are minimal.

The price adjustment will rest a few more days and the new round of price adjustment window will be opened on August 16 and honored on the morning of August 17. According to Treasure Island's calculation, as of August 13th, the reference price of crude oil (WTI, Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai, ESPO) averages 107.148, a change rate of 0.34%. This round of price adjustment may be difficult to cash in.

Anxious monitoring data showed that as of August 12 the rate of change index was 0.21%. After adding the unadjusted rate, the retail sales of domestic refined oil products increased by approximately RMB 15/ton.

Although the current upward trend of international crude oil prices continues, but according to Longzhong Petrochemical Network yesterday calculated that the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil fell by 0.13% from the previous day, continue to develop in the negative direction.

The analyst Si Bin believes that crude oil will not rise much in the short-term. Along with the gradual erosion of favorable factors, the overall forecast of crude oil prices will gradually increase this weekend, making it difficult for the comprehensive rate of change to rise sharply. Changes in international oil prices are difficult to accumulate to form a clear ups and downs, unable to provide support for price adjustments, and the domestic oil price hike has become a staple.

"Unless the price of Brent ** rises by $2 per barrel over $110.9 per barrel this week, or if it plungs below $4 per barrel below $105 per barrel, domestic refined oil retail prices will be raised or lowered. Maybe,” said An Dan, an analyst at Anxious Oil Refinery.

According to data from Zhuochuang Information Technology, the possibility that the price adjustment of refined oil will be continuously stranded will increase. If the rebound in international oil prices this week makes the crude oil change rate reach 0.7% or more, plus the rate of cyclical increase, after the refined oil price adjustment window opens on August 16, the refined oil product will usher in a slight increase; if the international oil price rebound is limited, crude oil The rate of change is still below 0.7% after the end of this round of the valuation cycle. It is expected that even if the price adjustment window for refined oil products is opened on August 16, the accumulating rate with the previous cycle will still be less than RMB 50/ton, and the price adjustment will be stranded.

“Two barrels of oil” was forced to lose money. Since the last round of price adjustment, the oil market has entered a consumption period. The expectation that the price adjustment will be stranded again will aggravate the current downturn in domestic refined oil products, and the wholesale price will be under pressure.

Longzhong Petrochemical Network statistics show that the average price of gasoline on the domestic market this week was 9,131 yuan/ton, down by 16 yuan/ton from the previous price adjustment window period; the wholesale price of 0# diesel was 7,922 yuan/ton, which was the last time The price adjustment period fell by 39 yuan/ton.

Treasure Island analyst Yu Jinbo said that before the last price adjustment in the domestic market, the market replenishment was abundant, but the economic situation during the year was poor, the market resource consumption was slow, and the stock was still large. Sinopec and Sinopec had a greater resistance to shipping.

It is understood that "two barrels of oil" has already taken a loss in some areas. Due to the bearish sentiment dominated by the market, the concessionary offer has actually had little effect. "Two barrels of oil" due to the slow progress of early sales, will increase the intensity of shipments, price loosing will be inevitable.

As of August 12th, Zhongyu Information monitored 26 major cities in China, PetroChina, and Sinopec's national average of 93# gasoline and 0# diesel oil had an average retail price of 703 yuan and 515 yuan per ton, respectively. The spread is new high during the year.

Long Qun Petrochemical analyst Xue Qun believes that due to the current lack of support for rigid demand, market volatility is limited, the domestic wholesale price of refined oil will continue to decline. However, on the other hand, the current price gap between wholesale and retail has expanded to a high level, and the terminal oil station profit margins have been secured. To further accelerate inventory turnover and seize market share, it is possible to further increase the margin for preferential treatment or bring benefits to consumers.

Yu Jinbo said that even if there is a slight increase in the retail price this time, but the margin is relatively small, and the boost to the domestic oil and gas fired oil market is limited. The current market for gasoline and diesel is weak, the middlemen are operating at greater risk, and their profits are limited. They tend to wait and see, and speculative demand in the market decreases. Due to weak terminal demand, downstream users maintain low inventory operations, and large purchases are insufficient. The overall purchase and sales status is difficult. Warmer. (