The machine tool industry "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" entered the stage of tackling

In a nutshell, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the machine tool tool successfully completed the “actively meeting the challenges of the financial crisis and maintaining the stable and rapid development of the machine tool industry”. During the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate was basically 30%. In addition to fulfilling the set goals, the industry has made great progress in all aspects, especially in terms of technological innovation and structural adjustment. At the same time, deep-seated contradictions are more prominent, which is mainly manifested in structural contradictions and contradictions in the way of development.

On the basis of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the development of the machine tool industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will enter a crucial stage.

Eleventh Five-Year Period: Results and Gap
Development to 2010, the machine tool industry has achieved gratifying results.

First, in terms of development scale, the machine tool industry achieved steady and rapid development in 2010. From January to November, the industry's total industrial output value was 493.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 545 billion yuan by the end of the year, an increase of 40.5% over the same period of last year, and more than three times that of the 166.5 billion in the early 11th Five-Year Plan; From November to November, the sales revenue was 476.26 billion, which is expected to reach more than 530 billion yuan, an increase of 40% over the same period of last year. From January to November, the sales value of output value reached 97.4%, a slight increase compared with the same period of last year; January-November The profit of the whole industry was 31.05 billion yuan, and the annual sales profit rate is expected to reach 6.5%~6.6%, which is also the best level in history.

Second, there has been significant progress in technological innovation and product mix adjustment. For example, from January to November, the industry produced 680,000 metal cutting machine tools, an increase of 32% over the same period of last year, of which CNC machine tools were 200,000 units, an increase of 67.9% over the same period last year. It can be seen that the output value and the numerical control rate are both improved a lot.

Third, there has been great progress in the adjustment of industrial structure. It has always been a breakthrough in the field of CNC systems and functional components in the industry. In recent years, the country has paid more and more attention to the development of these two fields. In the past, the mainframe industry was big but not strong, and the numerical control system and functional components industry was It is neither big nor strong. Now, the numerical control system and the functional component industry have greatly improved in scale over the past two years. The sales revenue and output value of several major CNC system companies and functional component companies have increased substantially. Can keep in sync with the OEM.

But at the same time, we must also see that there are still many gaps in the industry.

First, it is reflected in the insufficient industrialization of domestically produced medium and high-end CNC machine tools, and the market competitiveness of products is not strong. From January to November, China imported machine tool products worth 13.98 billion US dollars, creating a record high, 20% higher than 2008 before the financial crisis. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was 8.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 57% over the same period of last year, while the domestic metal processing machine tools only increased by 34%. The comparison of the two figures shows that from January to November, the domestic market share of domestic metal processing machine tools has decreased, which indicates that the industry's competitiveness in the middle and high-end market is still relatively weak. In terms of exports, from January to November, the industry exported machine tool products worth 6.3 billion US dollars, of which metal processing machine tools only exported 1.64 billion yuan. It can be seen that the difference between the export value and the import value is still very large, and the import and export deficit has increased by a large margin, reaching 65%, and the export products are mainly low-end.

Second, it is reflected in the unreasonable industrial structure. Despite the progress in industrial restructuring during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, it has not been fundamentally resolved. The contradiction between the development of numerical control system and functional components and the rapid development of the industry has become more and more prominent. In 2010, the import of CNC system and functional components has increased, which is faster than the import of mainframe products. For example, in 2010, FANUC expects sales to grow by 210%, and Siemens expects sales to grow by 60%. It is difficult for domestic CNC system companies to look back. It is obvious that the industry has not fundamentally solved this shortcoming.

Third, it is reflected in the way of development. The profitability level of the machine tool industry has been at a low level. It is expected that the industry's profit margin will be higher than 6% in 2010, which is the highest level in history, but it is in line with the manufacturing companies in developed countries that have gotten rid of low-level operations internationally. Than, the gap is great. For example, DMG's profit margin is about 15%, and FANUC is about 25% to 30%. Therefore, from the operating results, the domestic machine tool industry has not yet got rid of the low-level scale benefits; from the product point of view, there are still hard and soft problems, and now many domestic and high-end CNC machine tool products can also be done, the hardware level is indeed A lot of improvement, but the level of software can't keep up with development. For example, the domestic five-coordinate linkage blade milling price can be sold to two or three million, while the international price of such brand-name products is sold to 10 million yuan, not including the software part, and the software will cost another 10 million yuan.

In many sales, the proportion of software and all-round turnkey projects provided by domestic enterprises is still small, resulting in a decline in the market share of domestic machine tools in 2010 compared with 70.1% in 2009, which is expected to reach 66.7. %. Although the industry has developed at a relatively fast pace in recent years, it should be noted that competitors are growing faster than us and demand is growing faster.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan: Challenges and Opportunities
The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” ushered in a new five-year period. The industry is facing more severe challenges and has good development opportunities. It can be said that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the machine tool industry entered a new stage of tackling difficulties.

The main challenges are as follows:

First, in accordance with the national economic adjustment and the leading ideas put forward at the recent economic conference, in the future development, the state will strictly limit the traditional products of traditional industries, and invest in low-intelligence, high-energy-consumption and high-pollution products. I have to drop a batch. This means that the market demand for low-end machine tools will be greatly reduced, including low-end ordinary machine tools, including some economical CNC machine tools, which is the main market occupied by domestic CNC machine tools.

Second, we are facing a new economic growth policy and changing the growth mode. The demand structure of the market will change more and more rapidly, and the demand level will increase faster and faster. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the main markets facing the machine tool industry were national key projects and key projects, such as nuclear power, new energy vehicles, high-speed rail transportation, and environmental protection. The other is the strategy of seven new areas proposed by the state. Sexual emerging industries. It can be seen that the mainstream market facing the industry in the future is different from the demand of traditional industries. The new market mainly needs high-end products, and the requirements for precision, efficiency and reliability are getting higher and higher, and energy saving and environmental protection are also required.

Third, according to the current world economic situation, such as Western countries such as Europe and the United States, although the economy is developing in the direction of recovery, but the recovery is very slow, the Chinese market is still a unique show, so many foreign companies regard the Chinese market as the first. Strategic goal, in the next few years, the competition in China's machine tool market will be more cruel; at the same time, the industry will also face the impact of the ECFA agreement, China-Japan-Korea free trade zone, import and export deficit balance; in addition, with China With the rise of the economy, China's machine tool industry is also facing more stringent technical blockades and market blockades of high-end products in Western countries, which has made the development of the industry more difficult.

While facing challenges, it also ushered in a rare opportunity:

First, the world market is in the process of recovery, especially in the third world countries, such as India and South America. In addition, the domestic market is expected to be good in the future. According to the scientific development concept, in accordance with the transformation of development methods, the final foothold is still to be developed, so the future domestic market demand is guaranteed.

Second, the rapid development of China's machine tool industry in the past decade has laid a good foundation for the industry. The industry has entered the tough stage, which means that the domestic machine tool industry has already had a strong foundation.

Third, for the CNC machine tool industry, the state has successively issued a series of support policies. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, major projects of CNC machine tools continue to advance; in seven strategic new industries, CNC machine tools are classified as high-end equipment. The manufacturing sector is ranked first.

Goals, tasks and measures
The future development goal of the industry is to reach the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and 80% to 85% of CNC machine tools must be based on domestic satisfaction. At the beginning of the implementation of major science and technology projects, the number of high-end CNC machine tools that can be met in China is only about 10%. Now it has improved a lot, but the degree of industrialization of products is poor and the market competitiveness is also poor. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the industry must be able to make a big step toward the machine tool powerhouse: the industrial structure should be significantly improved, the product structure should be significantly improved, the domestic machine tool market share should be significantly improved, and the development mode should be changed. There must be significant changes.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the industry faced three main tasks:

First, increase efforts to improve the industrialization level and market competitiveness of medium and high-end machine tool products. This requires efforts in three aspects: quality, price, and manufacturing capabilities, including speeding up the development of functional components and solving in-depth technologies, especially industrialization technologies. The technology for developing a laboratory product is different from the technology for developing a mass-marketed product on the market. The latter requires more effort, so if you want to turn the laboratory model into an industrialized model, It is necessary to implement a new round of technological transformation.

The second is to promote the industrialization of CNC systems and functional components in a solid manner. This task is not enough because of industry and enterprise efforts. It must be promoted by the strength of the state. For example, encouragement in tax policy, if you can reduce the VAT rate of functional components and CNC system products, it will greatly promote the development of the industry. China must master the core technology of CNC machine tools, that is, CNC systems and key functional components, because if the economy and core technologies are not self-contained, it will be difficult to achieve sustainable development and be subject to people.

The third is to work hard to promote the transformation of the development mode.

In the face of the above tasks, the industry must actively take the following five measures:

First, we must use the 04 major special projects to organize deep-level industrialization technology research. On the basis of continuing to attach importance to cutting-edge technology research, we must spend a lot of energy to tackle the high-tech CNC machine tool industrialization technology. Second, we must strive to promote the integration of the two technologies. Technical transformation, efforts to improve the manufacturing capabilities and testing methods of high-end products; third, we must vigorously cultivate talents and attract talents; fourth, we must focus on promoting the construction of science and technology innovation system with enterprises as the mainstay; fifth, we must focus on developing international and domestic Markets.

 

 

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