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Although the photovoltaic industry experienced an uncertain period of policy development in the first half of the year, the policy environment of the domestic PV industry is still optimistic from the joint development of the three ministries and commissions to promote industry development. Zhu Chenghui, an analyst with the industry research department of Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, believes that the photovoltaic industry has staged investment opportunities in the second half of the year. Zhu Chenghui pointed out that the valuation center of the photovoltaic sector has been down. According to the current stock price, the static PE of the industry is 40 times and the dynamic PE is 24 times, which is close to the valuation level of the 2008-2009 boom period. In the second half of the year, in the second half of the year, from the perspective of supply and demand, the peak season of PV demand is coming, and the decline in inventory has led to a slowdown in product price reductions, and shipments are gradually concentrated in leading enterprises. In addition, from the perspective of policy and industry events, it is less likely to appear more than expected. The industry is in the value investment range in the long run, and valuation repair is a high probability event. From the perspective of layout, he gave the investment "iron triangle" of the photovoltaic industry. Silicon material selection cost type and steady expansion type First, silicon material is still at the top of the production value chain. Due to its technical difficulty, investment barriers and barriers to entry, the silicon material link is at the top of the industry chain and can be sustained in the later stage. For existing silicon producers, the net profit of the business is expected to be stable for a long time, and the investment is defensive. The latter performance growth mainly depends on the release of production capacity, the reduction of cost, and the replication of production lines. In terms of silicon materials, it is possible to select cost-type and steadily expand production investment targets. The targets with strong cost control capabilities include GCL-Poly (Hong Kong-listed companies), CSG A, and Tianwei Baobian. At present, the cost or expected cost of domestic mainstream silicon manufacturing enterprises are around 40 US dollars / kg, the difference is not big, due to market and cost risks of related companies in the construction period and production period, it is recommended to pay attention to Leshan Power, Aerospace Electromechanical . Equipment domestication alternatives generate investment opportunities. From the scale of PV related sub-sectors, the market size of supporting equipment is nearly US$6 billion, which is higher than the US$3.6 billion in manufacturing. The scale of supporting materials is US$800 million. many. Overall, the concentration of equipment and auxiliary materials is relatively high, and it is expected to maintain a high gross profit margin in the medium term (the decline in manufacturing industry chain profits is difficult to transmit to the equipment industry chain); although some segments are monopolized by foreign manufacturers. However, the pace of localization replacement is progressing, and the growth rate of related companies is expected to exceed the growth of component demand in the medium term. At present, the replacement of localization will maintain a period of investment opportunities of two to three years, and equipment and accessories are currently of great investment value. Although import substitution has certain risks in the short-term (product performance is not ideal, market opening speed is slow, product sales are discounted, etc.), this is a necessary process in the process of localization substitution, and does not affect the medium- and long-term optimism of such companies. From the perspective of investment layout, the valuation level of such companies should be higher than the manufacturing stage, and it has already been extremely valuable. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianlong Optoelectronics, Jinggong Technology, Stellar Technology, and Suzhou Gushu. Power station investment and construction power station company will emerge Although the photovoltaic and wind power industry situation is not exactly the same, but the development of wind power industry has certain reference value. At present, the profit of wind power has been concentrated on the construction and operation of downstream wind farms. In the future, the photovoltaic industry may also have this trend, that is, companies that invest in and build power stations will emerge in batches. Benefiting from the introduction of benchmarking electricity prices in the future, enterprises can obtain stable investment income by building commercial, military and civilian small and medium-sized power station projects. At present, A-shares still lack suitable investment targets, and the power station and power station service businesses are all in a subsidiary position, mainly to promote the sale of products. Related companies include Aerospace Electromechanical and Variety shares invested in Italian power stations, including listed companies such as Sunflower, Super Sun, Oriental Sunrise and Silver Star Energy.
Mining opportunities in the photovoltaic industry
A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document to deploy the "Golden Sun Demonstration Project", which is directed at photovoltaic power generation applications. For the photovoltaic sector that has been depressed for several months, this move is undoubtedly a charcoal in the snow. How to layout the photovoltaic industry in the future? See how people in the industry can make a move. The policy boosted the photovoltaic industry out of the haze on the 27th, the Ministry of Finance website posted the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the 2011 Golden Sun Demonstration" jointly signed by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Energy Administration, indicating that it is further expanding the scale of domestic photovoltaic power generation applications. To promote the development of strategic emerging industries, the central government will continue to arrange funds to support the implementation of the Golden Sun demonstration project. The "Notice" not only specifically lists the scope of support for demonstration projects, such as user-side photovoltaic power generation projects built with smart grid and micro-grid technology, independent photovoltaic power generation projects built in remote and non-powered areas, etc. The subsidy standard has also been specified. Industry insiders pointed out that in the domestic or international market, the development of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year was not smooth. The National Ministry of Foreign Affairs launched the "Notice" at this time to support the development of the domestic PV industry, which will help the domestic PV industry to go out of the haze and reinvigorate. In the later period, the whole market is biased towards optimism. The market is expected to usher in a big market in the third quarter. Although the development of the photovoltaic industry has not deviated from the focus of the market, its downturn in the first half of 2011, especially in the second quarter, is obvious to all. In April-May this year, the world's major PV markets, Germany and Italy, were all in a state of stagnation due to policy expectations. The overcapacity brought serious inventory pressure, which caused the spot market polysilicon price to fall 40% since April 1. Wafer prices fell 40% and component prices fell 27%. The rapid decline in the price of the whole industry chain caused the gross profit margin of all PV companies to fall sharply, and the profit margin was rapidly narrowed. Some small and medium-sized enterprises with no cost advantage suffered losses, and the operating rate fell below 50%. In June, Germany's new subsidy policy was introduced. Since only 700MW of PV modules were installed in March-May, the annual installed capacity was lower than the 3.5GW policy threshold. On July 1st, the subsidy will be exempted from the subsidy, which is better than 3% before the market. -6% downgrade expectations. In addition, due to the pressure of falling product prices, all links in the industry chain are actively researching and developing new processes, new materials, new equipment, etc. in order to accelerate the decline in the cost of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power generation and achieve parity as soon as possible. After experiencing a sharp fall in prices in the previous phase, demand in the photovoltaic industry began to recover slowly. Zheng Dong, an analyst with Guoxin Securities' electrical equipment industry, pointed out that after the price drop, the return on investment of the power station will also increase, which will further stimulate demand. Due to the recovery of demand, the price of components and polysilicon gradually stabilized after the deep decline. The prices in some regions have rebounded slightly after the bottoming, but the buyers and sellers are in a relative game due to differences in the future market. In addition, the recent decline in silicon materials has given room for profit growth for downstream components, making component profitability expected to improve significantly in the third quarter. Overall, the improvement of the fundamentals of the industry has basically been determined. If demand and prices rebound in the third quarter, the sector is expected to usher in the market. Yesterday's market seems to have become a testimony to the industry's optimistic about the industry. As of yesterday's close, the PV-related polysilicon concept sector averaged 1.03%, ranking in the forefront of the concept sector. Nearly 60% of the stocks in the sector closed red. After the opening of Sichuan Investment Energy, it led the whole day and rose 5.92% in late trading. Energy, aerospace and electromechanical, etc. are among the top gainers. Strategic PV investment "iron triangle"